A Fundraising Survival Guide
Paul Graham, a Y Combinator partner, shares first-hand survival techniques for startup fundraising, which he calls the second hardest part of starting a startup. He explains why the process is brutal—inefficient markets, indecisive investors, and the danger of demoralization—and offers nine concrete tactics: lower expectations, keep building product, be conservative, be flexible about amount, achieve ramen profitability, handle rejection analytically, consider consulting as a backup, avoid inexperienced investors, and constantly gauge where you stand. The essay includes specific numbers ($140/month/user, $2K/month ramen profitability) and the Viaweb anecdote. Though from 2008, its core insights on investor psychology remain relevant for today's tech founders.
August 2008
Raising money is the second hardest part of starting a startup. The hardest part is making something people want: most startups that die, die because they didn't do that. But the second biggest cause of death is probably the difficulty of raising money. Fundraising is brutal.
2008年8月
募资是创业过程中第二难的部分。最难的部分是做出人们想要的东西:大多数创业公司之所以倒闭,就是因为没做到这一点。而第二大死因则很可能是募资的困难。募资是残酷的。
One reason it's so brutal is simply the brutality of markets. People who've spent most of their lives in schools or big companies may not have been exposed to that. Professors and bosses usually feel some sense of responsibility toward you; if you make a valiant effort and fail, they'll cut you a break. Markets are less forgiving. Customers don't care how hard you worked, only whether you solved their problems.
Investors evaluate startups the way customers evaluate products, not the way bosses evaluate employees. If you're making a valiant effort and failing, maybe they'll invest in your next startup, but not this one.
But raising money from investors is harder than selling to customers, because there are so few of them. There's nothing like an efficient market. You're unlikely to have more than 10 who are interested; it's difficult to talk to more. So the randomness of any one investor's behavior can really affect you.
Problem number 3: investors are very random. All investors, including us, are by ordinary standards incompetent. We constantly have to make decisions about things we don't understand, and more often than not we're wrong.
And yet a lot is at stake. The amounts invested by different types of investors vary from five thousand dollars to fifty million, but the amount usually seems large for whatever type of investor it is. Investment decisions are big decisions.
That combination—making big decisions about things they don't understand—tends to make investors very skittish. VCs are notorious for leading founders on. Some of the more unscrupulous do it deliberately. But even the most well-intentioned investors can behave in a way that would seem crazy in everyday life. One day they're full of enthusiasm and seem ready to write you a check on the spot; the next they won't return your phone calls. They're not playing games with you. They just can't make up their minds.
募资如此残酷的原因之一,就是市场的冷酷。那些大半辈子待在学校或大公司的人可能从未经历过这种冷酷。教授和老板通常对你有些责任感;如果你奋力拼搏却失败了,他们会放你一马。市场则没那么宽容。顾客不在乎你有多努力,只在乎你是否解决了他们的问题。
投资者评价创业公司的方式,就像顾客评价产品一样,而不是老板评价员工。如果你奋力拼搏却失败了,他们可能会投资你的下一个创业公司,但不会投资这一个。
但从投资者那里募资比向顾客销售更难,因为投资者数量太少了。根本不存在什么有效市场。你很可能只有不到10位感兴趣的人;很难接触到更多。所以任何一位投资者的随机行为都会严重影响你。
问题之三:投资者非常随机。所有投资者,包括我们,按普通标准来看都不称职。我们经常要对不了解的事情做决策,而且大多数时候都是错的。
然而,赌注却很大。不同投资者的投资金额从五千到五千万美元不等,但无论哪种类型的投资者,这笔钱对其来说通常都显得很大。投资决策是重大决策。
这种组合——对不了解的事情做重大决策——往往让投资者变得非常神经质。风投以吊着创始人而臭名昭著。有些不择手段的人会故意这么做。但即使是最善意的投资者,也可能做出在日常生活中看似疯狂的行为。今天他们还热情高涨,似乎准备当场给你开支票;明天就不回你电话了。他们不是在跟你玩游戏。他们只是拿不定主意。
If that weren't bad enough, these wildly fluctuating nodes are all linked together. Startup investors all know one another, and (though they hate to admit it) the biggest factor in their opinion of you is the opinion of other investors.
Talk about a recipe for an unstable system. You get the opposite of the damping that the fear/greed balance usually produces in markets. No one is interested in a startup that's a "bargain" because everyone else hates it.
So the inefficient market you get because there are so few players is exacerbated by the fact that they act less than independently. The result is a system like some kind of primitive, multi-celled sea creature, where you irritate one extremity and the whole thing contracts violently.
如果这还不够糟,这些剧烈波动的节点还全都相互关联。创业投资者都彼此认识,而且(尽管他们不愿承认)他们对你的看法中最大的因素就是其他投资者的看法。
这简直是系统不稳定的配方。你得到的不是市场通常由恐惧/贪婪平衡产生的阻尼效应。没有人对一个“便宜货”创业公司感兴趣,因为其他所有人都讨厌它。
所以,由于玩家数量少而导致的低效市场,又因为他们的行为缺乏独立性而加剧。结果就像一个原始的多细胞海生生物,你触碰它一处,整个身体都剧烈收缩。
Y Combinator is working to fix this. We're trying to increase the number of investors just as we're increasing the number of startups. We hope that as the number of both increases we'll get something more like an efficient market. As t approaches infinity, Demo Day approaches an auction.
Unfortunately, t is still very far from infinity. What does a startup do now, in the imperfect world we currently inhabit? The most important thing is not to let fundraising get you down. Startups live or die on morale. If you let the difficulty of raising money destroy your morale, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Y Combinator正在努力解决这个问题。我们试图在增加创业公司数量的同时,也增加投资者的数量。我们希望随着两者数量的增加,市场会变得更像有效市场。随着t趋近无穷,Demo Day将趋近于一场拍卖。
不幸的是,t还远未达到无穷。在目前这个不完美的世界里,创业公司该怎么办?最重要的是不要让募资击垮你。创业公司靠士气生存或死亡。如果你让募资的困难摧毁了你的士气,那就会成为自我实现的预言。
Some would-be founders may by now be thinking, why deal with investors at all? If raising money is so painful, why do it?
One answer to that is obvious: because you need money to live on. It's a fine idea in principle to finance your startup with its own revenues, but you can't create instant customers. Whatever you make, you have to sell a certain amount to break even. It will take time to grow your sales to that point, and it's hard to predict, till you try, how long it will take.
We could not have bootstrapped Viaweb, for example. We charged quite a lot for our software—about $140 per user per month—but it was at least a year before our revenues would have covered even our paltry costs. We didn't have enough saved to live on for a year.
If you factor out the "bootstrapped" companies that were actually funded by their founders through savings or a day job, the remainder either (a) got really lucky, which is hard to do on demand, or (b) began life as consulting companies and gradually transformed themselves into product companies.
Consulting is the only option you can count on. But consulting is far from free money. It's not as painful as raising money from investors, perhaps, but the pain is spread over a longer period. Years, probably. And for many types of startup, that delay could be fatal. If you're working on something so unusual that no one else is likely to think of it, you can take your time. Joshua Schachter gradually built Delicious on the side while working on Wall Street. He got away with it because no one else realized it was a good idea. But if you were building something as obviously necessary as online store software at about the same time as Viaweb, and you were working on it on the side while spending most of your time on client work, you were not in a good position.
Bootstrapping sounds great in principle, but this apparently verdant territory is one from which few startups emerge alive. The mere fact that bootstrapped startups tend to be famous on that account should set off alarm bells. If it worked so well, it would be the norm.
Bootstrapping may get easier, because starting a company is getting cheaper. But I don't think we'll ever reach the point where most startups can do without outside funding. Technology tends to get dramatically cheaper, but living expenses don't.
The upshot is, you can choose your pain: either the short, sharp pain of raising money, or the chronic ache of consulting. For a given total amount of pain, raising money is the better choice, because new technology is usually more valuable now than later.
有些潜在创始人现在可能在想,何必跟投资者打交道?如果募资这么痛苦,为什么还要做呢?
一个显而易见的答案是:因为你需要钱生活。原则上用自己的收入来资助创业公司是个好主意,但你不可能瞬间创造客户。无论你做什么,都需要卖出一定数量才能收支平衡。销售额增长到那个点需要时间,而且在你尝试之前很难预测需要多久。
例如,我们Viaweb就无法自力更生。我们的软件收费不低——每个用户每月约140美元——但至少一年后收入才能覆盖我们微薄的成本。我们积蓄不够支撑一年。
如果把那些实际上靠创始人积蓄或兼职工作的“自力更生”公司排除在外,剩下的要么是(a)运气极好(这很难按需实现),要么是(b)从咨询公司起步,逐渐转型为产品公司。
咨询是唯一可以依赖的选择。但咨询远非免费的钱。也许没有向投资者募资那么痛苦,但痛苦会持续更长的时间——很可能好几年。而且对许多类型的创业公司来说,这种延迟可能是致命的。如果你在做一件极其独特、别人不太可能想到的事情,你可以慢慢来。Joshua Schachter在华尔街工作期间,用业余时间逐渐建成了Delicious。他成功了,因为没有人意识到这是个好主意。但如果你在跟Viaweb差不多的时间做在线商店软件这样显然必要的东西,却只是兼职,大部分时间花在客户工作上,那你处境就不妙了。
自力更生听起来很美好,但这片看似肥沃的领域,实际上很少有创业公司能活着走出来。仅凭自力更生的公司往往因此出名这一事实,就应该敲响警钟。如果它真那么有效,它就会成为常态。
自力更生可能会变得更容易,因为创业成本在降低。但我认为我们永远无法达到大多数创业公司不需要外部资金的程度。技术会急剧降价,但生活开支不会。
结果就是,你可以选择你的痛苦:要么短期的、尖锐的募资之痛,要么长期的咨询之痛。在总痛苦量一定的情况下,募资是更好的选择,因为新技术通常现在比将来更有价值。
But although for most startups raising money will be the lesser evil, it's still a pretty big evil—so big that it can easily kill you. Not merely in the obvious sense that if you fail to raise money you might have to shut the company down, but because the process of raising money itself can kill you.
To survive it you need a set of techniques mostly orthogonal to the ones used in convincing investors, just as mountain climbers need to know survival techniques that are mostly orthogonal to those used in physically getting up and down mountains.
- Have low expectations.
The reason raising money destroys so many startups' morale is not simply that it's hard, but that it's so much harder than they expected. What kills you is the disappointment. And the lower your expectations, the harder it is to be disappointed.
Startup founders tend to be optimistic. This can work well in technology, at least some of the time, but it's the wrong way to approach raising money. Better to assume investors will always let you down. Acquirers too, while we're at it. At YC one of our secondary mantras is "Deals fall through." No matter what deal you have going on, assume it will fall through. The predictive power of this simple rule is amazing.
There will be a tendency, as a deal progresses, to start to believe it will happen, and then to depend on it happening. You must resist this. Tie yourself to the mast. This is what kills you. Deals do not have a trajectory like most other human interactions, where shared plans solidify linearly over time. Deals often fall through at the last moment. Often the other party doesn't really think about what they want till the last moment. So you can't use your everyday intuitions about shared plans as a guide. When it comes to deals, you have to consciously turn them off and become pathologically cynical.
This is harder to do than it sounds. It's very flattering when eminent investors seem interested in funding you. It's easy to start to believe that raising money will be quick and straightforward. But it hardly ever is.
尽管对大多数创业公司来说,募资是较小的恶,但它仍然是一个相当大的恶——大到足以轻易杀死你。不仅是因为募资失败可能迫使公司倒闭,而且募资过程本身就能杀死你。
为了生存,你需要一套与说服投资者基本正交的技巧,就像登山者需要知道与上下山技巧基本正交的生存技巧一样。
- 降低期望。
募资摧毁许多创业公司士气的原因,不仅仅是因为它难,而是因为它比他们预期的要难得多。杀死你的是失望。期望越低,就越难失望。
创业创始人往往乐观。这在技术领域有时行得通,但用来对待募资却是错误的方式。最好假设投资者总会让你失望。收购方也一样。在YC,我们的次要口号之一是“交易会告吹”。无论你正在进行什么交易,都假设它会告吹。这个简单规则的前瞻能力惊人。
随着交易进展,你很容易开始相信它会成真,然后依赖它。你必须抵制这种倾向。把自己绑在桅杆上。这才是杀死你的东西。交易不像大多数其他人际互动那样,共同计划随时间线性稳固。交易常常在最后一刻告吹。往往对方直到最后一刻才认真思考他们想要什么。所以你不能用日常关于共同计划的直觉来指导。面对交易,你必须有意关闭这些直觉,变得病态地愤世嫉俗。
这说起来容易做起来难。当著名投资者似乎对投资你感兴趣时,非常令人受宠若惊。你很容易开始相信募资会又快又直接。但事实几乎从不如此。
- Keep working on your startup.
It sounds obvious to say that you should keep working on your startup while raising money. Actually this is hard to do. Most startups don't manage to.
Raising money has a mysterious capacity to suck up all your attention. Even if you only have one meeting a day with investors, somehow that one meeting will burn up your whole day. It costs not just the time of the actual meeting, but the time getting there and back, and the time preparing for it beforehand and thinking about it afterward.
The best way to survive the distraction of meeting with investors is probably to partition the company: to pick one founder to deal with investors while the others keep the company going. This works better when a startup has 3 founders than 2, and better when the leader of the company is not also the lead developer. In the best case, the company keeps moving forward at about half speed.
That's the best case, though. More often than not the company comes to a standstill while raising money. And that is dangerous for so many reasons. Raising money always takes longer than you expect. What seems like it's going to be a 2 week interruption turns into a 4 month interruption. That can be very demoralizing. And worse still, it can make you less attractive to investors. They want to invest in companies that are dynamic. A company that hasn't done anything new in 4 months doesn't seem dynamic, so they start to lose interest. Investors rarely grasp this, but much of what they're responding to when they lose interest in a startup is the damage done by their own indecision.
The solution: put the startup first. Fit meetings with investors into the spare moments in your development schedule, rather than doing development in the spare moments between meetings with investors. If you keep the company moving forward—releasing new features, increasing traffic, doing deals, getting written about—those investor meetings are more likely to be productive. Not just because your startup will seem more alive, but also because it will be better for your own morale, which is one of the main ways investors judge you.
- 坚持推进公司业务。
在募资的同时应该继续推进公司业务,这话听起来显而易见。但实际上很难做到。大多数创业公司都无法做到。
募资有一种神秘的能力,能吸走你所有的注意力。即使你一天只跟投资者开一次会,不知怎的这次会议就会消耗你一整天。它不仅耗费实际会议的时间,还有往返的时间,以及会前准备和会后思考的时间。
应对投资者会议分心的最佳方法可能是将公司分拆:让一位创始人专门负责投资者,其他人继续推进公司。当创业公司有三位创始人而不是两位时,当公司领导人不是首席开发者时,这种方法效果更好。在最好的情况下,公司能以大约一半的速度前进。
但这是最好的情况。更多时候,公司在募资期间会陷入停滞。这有很多危险。募资总是比你预期的时间长。原本以为两周的中断,结果变成了四个月的中断。这非常打击士气。更糟的是,这会让投资者觉得你缺乏吸引力。他们想投资有活力的公司。一个四个月没做出新东西的公司看起来没有活力,所以他们开始失去兴趣。投资者很少意识到,他们对创业公司失去兴趣时,很大程度上是在回应他们自己优柔寡断造成的损害。
解决方案:把公司放在第一位。把投资者会议安排在你开发计划的空余时间里,而不是在会议之间的空余时间里做开发。如果你让公司继续向前推进——发布新功能、增加流量、做交易、被媒体报道——那些投资者会议就更有可能富有成效。这不仅因为你的创业公司看起来更有活力,也因为这有利于你自己的士气,而士气是投资者判断你的主要方式之一。
- Be conservative.
As conditions get worse, the optimal strategy becomes more conservative. When things go well you can take risks; when things are bad you want to play it safe.
I advise approaching fundraising as if it were always going badly. The reason is that between your ability to delude yourself and the wildly unstable nature of the system you're dealing with, things probably either already are or could easily become much worse than they seem.
What I tell most startups we fund is that if someone reputable offers you funding on reasonable terms, take it. There have been startups that ignored this advice and got away with it—startups that ignored a good offer in the hope of getting a better one, and actually did. But in the same position I'd give the same advice again. Who knows how many bullets were in the gun they were playing Russian roulette with?
Corollary: if an investor seems interested, don't just let them sit. You can't assume someone interested in investing will stay interested. In fact, you can't even tell (they can't even tell) if they're really interested till you try to convert that interest into money. So if you have hot prospect, either close them now or write them off. And unless you already have enough funding, that reduces to: close them now.
Startups don't win by getting great funding rounds, but by making great products. So finish raising money and get back to work.
- 保持保守。
随着情况恶化,最优策略会变得更保守。事情顺利时你可以冒险;事情糟糕时你希望稳扎稳打。
我建议像对待募资永远不顺利那样来对待它。原因是,在你自我欺骗的能力和你所面对系统的极度不稳定之间,事情很可能要么已经比看起来更糟,要么很容易变得更糟。
我对我们资助的大多数创业公司的建议是,如果有信誉良好的人以合理条款提供资金,就接受。有些创业公司无视这个建议并侥幸成功——他们忽略了一个好的offer,期望得到更好的,并且确实得到了。但处于同样位置,我会再次给出同样的建议。谁知道他们玩俄罗斯轮盘赌的枪里有多少颗子弹?
推论:如果投资者似乎感兴趣,不要让他们干等着。你不能假设一个感兴趣的人会一直感兴趣。事实上,在你尝试把这种兴趣转化为钱之前,你甚至无法判断(他们也无法判断)他们是否真的感兴趣。所以如果你有一个热门潜在投资者,要么现在就搞定他们,要么放弃。除非你已经有了足够的资金,否则这归结为:现在就搞定他们。
创业公司不是靠获得巨额融资轮次赢的,而是靠做出伟大的产品。所以赶紧结束募资,回去工作。
- Be flexible.
There are two questions VCs ask that you shouldn't answer: "Who else are you talking to?" and "How much are you trying to raise?"
VCs don't expect you to answer the first question. They ask it just in case. They do seem to expect an answer to the second. But I don't think you should just tell them a number. Not as a way to play games with them, but because you shouldn't have a fixed amount you need to raise.
The custom of a startup needing a fixed amount of funding is an obsolete one left over from the days when startups were more expensive. A company that needed to build a factory or hire 50 people obviously needed to raise a certain minimum amount. But few technology startups are in that position today.
We advise startups to tell investors there are several different routes they could take depending on how much they raised. As little as $50k could pay for food and rent for the founders for a year. A couple hundred thousand would let them get office space and hire some smart people they know from school. A couple million would let them really blow this thing out. The message (and not just the message, but the fact) should be: we're going to succeed no matter what. Raising more money just lets us do it faster.
If you're raising an angel round, the size of the round can even change on the fly. In fact, it's just as well to make the round small initially, then expand as needed, rather than trying to raise a large round and risk losing the investors you already have if you can't raise the full amount. You may even want to do a "rolling close," where the round has no predetermined size, but instead you sell stock to investors one at a time as they say yes. That helps break deadlocks, because you can start as soon as the first one is ready to buy.
- 保持灵活。
有两个风投会问的问题,你不应该回答:“你还在跟谁谈?”和“你想融多少钱?”
风投并不期望你回答第一个问题。他们只是随口问问。他们似乎期望你回答第二个。但我认为你不应该直接给他们一个数字。不是为了跟他们玩游戏,而是因为你本就不应该有一个固定的融资额。
创业公司需要固定金额的融资,这种习惯是从创业公司更昂贵的时代遗留下来的过时做法。需要建工厂或雇50人的公司显然需要筹集某个最低金额。但如今很少有科技创业公司处于那种情况。
我们建议创业公司告诉投资者,根据融资额的不同,他们有几条不同的路径可走。少到5万美元就能支付创始人一年的食物和房租。几十万美元就能让他们租办公室、从学校雇一些聪明人。几百万美元就能让他们真正大干一场。信息(不仅仅是信息,而是事实)应该是:无论怎样我们都会成功。更多资金只是让我们更快成功。
如果你在融天使轮,融资额甚至可以随时变化。事实上,最好先从小额开始,然后根据需要扩大,而不是试图融一大轮,结果因为无法完成全额而失去已有的投资者。你甚至可以考虑“滚动关闭”,即融资轮没有预设规模,而是每当有投资者同意,就逐一出售股票。这有助于打破僵局,因为一旦第一个投资者准备好购买,你就可以启动。
- Be independent.
A startup with a couple founders in their early twenties can have expenses so low that they could be profitable on as little as $2000 per month. That's negligible as corporate revenues go, but the effect on your morale and your bargaining position is anything but. At YC we use the phrase "ramen profitable" to describe the situation where you're making just enough to pay your living expenses. Once you cross into ramen profitable, everything changes. You may still need investment to make it big, but you don't need it this month.
You can't plan when you start a startup how long it will take to become profitable. But if you find yourself in a position where a little more effort expended on sales would carry you over the threshold of ramen profitable, do it.
Investors like it when you're ramen profitable. It shows you've thought about making money, instead of just working on amusing technical problems; it shows you have the discipline to keep your expenses low; but above all, it means you don't need them.
There is nothing investors like more than a startup that seems like it's going to succeed even without them. Investors like it when they can help a startup, but they don't like startups that would die without that help.
At YC we spend a lot of time trying to predict how the startups we've funded will do, because we're trying to learn how to pick winners. We've now watched the trajectories of so many startups that we're getting better at predicting them. And when we're talking about startups we think are likely to succeed, what we find ourselves saying is things like "Oh, those guys can take care of themselves. They'll be fine." Not "those guys are really smart" or "those guys are working on a great idea."
When we predict good outcomes for startups, the qualities that come up in the supporting arguments are toughness, adaptability, determination. Which means to the extent we're correct, those are the qualities you need to win.
Investors know this, at least unconsciously. The reason they like it when you don't need them is not simply that they like what they can't have, but because that quality is what makes founders succeed.
Sam Altman has it. You could parachute him into an island full of cannibals and come back in 5 years and he'd be the king. If you're Sam Altman, you don't have to be profitable to convey to investors that you'll succeed with or without them. (He wasn't, and he did.) Not everyone has Sam's deal-making ability. I myself don't. But if you don't, you can let the numbers speak for you.
- 保持独立。
一个只有二十出头创始人的创业公司,可以将开支压得非常低,每月只需2000美元就能盈利。作为公司收入,这微不足道,但它对你的士气和谈判地位的影响却绝非微不足道。在YC,我们用“拉面盈利”来形容收入刚好覆盖生活开支的情况。一旦你跨入拉面盈利,一切都会改变。你可能仍然需要投资才能做大,但你本月不需要了。
你无法在创业之初计划好需要多久才能盈利。但如果你发现自己只需在销售上多花一点力气就能跨过拉面盈利的门槛,那就去做。
投资者喜欢你实现拉面盈利。这表明你考虑过赚钱,而不仅仅是解决有趣的技术问题;表明你有自律将开支保持在低水平;但最重要的是,这意味着你不需要他们。
投资者最喜欢的就是那种即使没有他们也能成功的创业公司。投资者喜欢帮助创业公司,但他们不喜欢离开帮助就会死的创业公司。
在YC,我们花了很多时间预测我们投资的创业公司会如何发展,因为我们试图学习如何挑选赢家。现在我们已经观察了这么多创业公司的轨迹,预测能力越来越强。当我们谈论那些我们认为可能成功的创业公司时,我们说的话是“噢,那些家伙能照顾好自己。他们会做得很好。”而不是“那些家伙很聪明”或“那些家伙在做很棒的点子。”
当我们预测创业公司会有好结果时,支撑论据中出现的品质是坚韧、适应力、决心。这意味着如果我们正确,这些就是你获胜所需的品质。
投资者知道这一点,至少潜意识里知道。他们喜欢你不依赖他们,不仅仅是因为他们喜欢得不到的东西,而是因为这种品质正是创始人成功的关键。
Sam Altman就具备这种品质。你可以把他空降到一个充满食人族的岛屿,五年后回来,他会成为国王。如果你是Sam Altman,你甚至不需要盈利就能向投资者传达你无论有没有他们都会成功。(他当时没有盈利,但他做到了。)不是每个人都有Sam的谈判能力。我自己就没有。但如果你没有,你可以让数字替你说话。
- Don't take rejection personally.
Getting rejected by investors can make you start to doubt yourself. After all, they're more experienced than you. If they think your startup is lame, aren't they probably right?
Maybe, maybe not. The way to handle rejection is with precision. You shouldn't simply ignore rejection. It might mean something. But you shouldn't automatically get demoralized either.
To understand what rejection means, you have to understand first of all how common it is. Statistically, the average VC is a rejection machine. David Hornik, a partner at August, told me:
The numbers for me ended up being something like 500 to 800 plans received and read, somewhere between 50 and 100 initial 1 hour meetings held, about 20 companies that I got interested in, about 5 that I got serious about and did a bunch of work, 1 to 2 deals done in a year. So the odds are against you. You may be a great entrepreneur, working on interesting stuff, etc. but it is still incredibly unlikely that you get funded.
This is less true with angels, but VCs reject practically everyone. The structure of their business means a partner does at most 2 new investments a year, no matter how many good startups approach him.
In addition to the odds being terrible, the average investor is, as I mentioned, a pretty bad judge of startups. It's harder to judge startups than most other things, because great startup ideas tend to seem wrong. A good startup idea has to be not just good but novel. And to be both good and novel, an idea probably has to seem bad to most people, or someone would already be doing it and it wouldn't be novel.
That makes judging startups harder than most other things one judges. You have to be an intellectual contrarian to be a good startup investor. That's a problem for VCs, most of whom are not particularly imaginative. VCs are mostly money guys, not people who make things.
Angels are better at appreciating novel ideas, because most were founders themselves.
So when you get a rejection, use the data that's in it, and not what's not. If an investor gives you specific reasons for not investing, look at your startup and ask if they're right. If they're real problems, fix them. But don't just take their word for it. You're supposed to be the domain expert; you have to decide.
Though a rejection doesn't necessarily tell you anything about your startup, it does suggest your pitch could be improved. Figure out what's not working and change it. Don't just think "investors are stupid." Often they are, but figure out precisely where you lose them.
Don't let rejections pile up as a depressing, undifferentiated heap. Sort them and analyze them, and then instead of thinking "no one likes us," you'll know precisely how big a problem you have, and what to do about it.
- 不要视拒绝为打击。
被投资者拒绝会让你开始怀疑自己。毕竟,他们比你更有经验。如果他们认为你的创业公司很逊,难道他们不是很可能对吗?
也许是,也许不是。处理拒绝要精准。你不应该简单地忽略拒绝。它可能意味着什么。但你也不应该自动灰心丧气。
要理解拒绝意味着什么,首先得明白拒绝有多普遍。从统计上看,普通风投就是一台拒绝机器。August Ventures的合伙人David Hornik告诉我:
“我的数字大概是:收到并阅读500到800份计划书,进行50到100次一小时的初步会议,大约20家让我感兴趣的公司,其中5家我认真对待并做了大量工作,一年完成1到2笔交易。所以概率对你不利。你可能是一位伟大的企业家,在做有趣的事情,但获得融资的可能性仍然微乎其微。”
天使投资人稍好一些,但风投几乎拒绝所有人。他们的业务结构意味着合伙人每年最多做2笔新投资,无论有多少好创业公司找上门。
除了糟糕的概率,正如我提到的,普通投资者判断创业公司的能力也很差。判断创业公司比判断大多数其他事情更难,因为伟大的创业想法往往看起来是错误的。好的创业点子不仅要好,还要新颖。要既好又新颖,这个想法很可能在大多数人看来很糟糕,否则别人早就做了,它就不新颖了。
这使得判断创业公司比判断其他大多数事情更困难。要成为一个好的创业投资者,你必须在智力上做一个逆行者。这对大多数风投来说是个问题,他们大多不是特别有想象力。风投大多是管钱的人,而不是创造东西的人。
天使投资人更擅长欣赏新颖的想法,因为他们大多数本身就是创始人。
所以,当你被拒绝时,从中提取有用的信息,而不是没有的信息。如果投资者给了你不投资的明确理由,审视你的创业公司,问问他们是否正确。如果是真正的问题,就解决它们。但不要全盘接受他们的说法。你应该才是领域专家;你必须自己做决定。
虽然拒绝不一定说明你的创业公司有什么问题,但它确实表明你的推销可以改进。找出哪里不行并改变它。不要只是认为“投资者很蠢”。他们通常确实很蠢,但要精确找出你在哪里失去了他们。
不要让拒绝堆积成令人沮丧的未分类堆。排序并分析它们,然后,与其想“没有人喜欢我们”,你会精确知道问题有多大,以及该怎么做。
- Be able to downshift into consulting (if appropriate).
Consulting, as I mentioned, is a dangerous way to finance a startup. But it's better than dying. It's a bit like anaerobic respiration: not the optimum solution for the long term, but it can save you from an immediate threat. If you're having trouble raising money from investors at all, it could save you to be able to shift toward consulting.
This works better for some startups than others. It wouldn't have been a natural fit for, say, Google, but if your company was making software for building web sites, you could degrade fairly gracefully into consulting by building sites for clients with it.
So long as you were careful not to get sucked permanently into consulting, this could even have advantages. You'd understand your users well if you were using the software for them. Plus as a consulting company you might be able to get big-name users using your software that you wouldn't have gotten as a product company.
At Viaweb we were forced to operate like a consulting company initially, because we were so desperate for users that we'd offer to build merchants' sites for them if they'd sign up. But we never charged for such work, because we didn't want them to start treating us like actual consultants, and calling us every time they wanted something changed on their site. We knew we had to stay a product company, because only that scales.
- 适时转为咨询模式(如果合适)。
正如我提到的,咨询是资助创业公司的一种危险方式。但总比死掉好。它有点像无氧呼吸:不是长期最优方案,但能让你应对眼前威胁。如果你完全无法从投资者那里融到钱,能够转向咨询或许能救你一命。
这对一些创业公司效果更好。比如,Google就不太适合。但如果你的公司是做建站软件的,你可以比较优雅地退化为咨询,用你的软件为客户建站。
只要小心不要永久陷入咨询的泥潭,这甚至可能有好处。如果你用软件为客户服务,你会非常了解用户。此外,作为咨询公司,你可能会吸引一些大牌用户使用你的软件,而作为产品公司你可能得不到他们。
在Viaweb,我们最初被迫像咨询公司一样运作,因为我们非常渴望用户,以至于我们愿意为注册的商家建站。但我们从未为此收费,因为我们不想让他们开始把我们当作真正的咨询顾问,每次网站有改动就打电话给我们。我们知道我们必须保持产品公司的身份,因为只有那样才能规模化。
- Avoid inexperienced investors.
Though novice investors seem unthreatening they can be the most dangerous sort, because they're so nervous. Especially in proportion to the amount they invest. Raising $20,000 from a first-time angel investor can be as much work as raising $2 million from a VC fund.
Their lawyers are generally inexperienced too. But while the investors can admit they don't know what they're doing, their lawyers can't. One YC startup negotiated terms for a tiny round with an angel, only to receive a 70-page agreement from his lawyer. And since the lawyer could never admit, in front of his client, that he'd screwed up, he instead had to insist on retaining all the draconian terms in it, so the deal fell through.
Of course, someone has to take money from novice investors, or there would never be any experienced ones. But if you do, either (a) drive the process yourself, including supplying the paperwork, or (b) use them only to fill up a larger round led by someone else.
- 避开新手投资者。
尽管新手投资者看起来不具威胁性,但他们可能是最危险的一类,因为他们非常紧张。尤其是相对于他们投资金额而言。从第一次做天使投资的人那里筹集2万美元,可能跟从风投基金筹集200万美元一样费劲。
他们的律师通常也缺乏经验。但投资者可以承认自己不懂,律师却不能。有个YC创业公司跟一位天使谈妥了一轮小额融资的条款,结果收到了对方律师一份70页的协议。由于律师在客户面前永远不能承认自己搞砸了,他反而坚持保留协议中所有严苛的条款,导致交易告吹。
当然,总得有人从新手投资者那里拿钱,否则就不会有经验丰富的投资者。但如果你这样做了,要么(a)你自己主导整个过程,包括提供文件;要么(b)只把他们用作由其他人领投的更大轮次的填充者。
- Know where you stand.
The most dangerous thing about investors is their indecisiveness. The worst case scenario is the long no, the no that comes after months of meetings. Rejections from investors are like design flaws: inevitable, but much less costly if you discover them early.
So while you're talking to investors, constantly look for signs of where you stand. How likely are they to offer you a term sheet? What do they have to be convinced of first? You shouldn't necessarily always be asking these questions outright—that could get annoying—but you should always be collecting data about them.
Investors tend to resist committing except to the extent you push them to. It's in their interest to collect the maximum amount of information while making the minimum number of decisions. The best way to force them to act is, of course, competing investors. But you can also apply some force by focusing the discussion: by asking what specific questions they need answered to make up their minds, and then answering them. If you get through several obstacles and they keep raising new ones, assume that ultimately they're going to flake.
You have to be disciplined when collecting data about investors' intentions. Otherwise their desire to lead you on will combine with your own desire to be led on to produce completely inaccurate impressions.
Use the data to weight your strategy. You'll probably be talking to several investors. Focus on the ones that are most likely to say yes. The value of a potential investor is a combination of how good it would be if they said yes, and how likely they are to say it. Put the most weight on the second factor. Partly because the most important quality in an investor is simply investing. But also because, as I mentioned, the biggest factor in investors' opinion of you is other investors' opinion of you. If you're talking to several investors and you manage to get one over the threshold of saying yes, it will make the others much more interested. So you're not sacrificing the lukewarm investors if you focus on the hot ones; convincing the hot investors is the best way to convince the lukewarm ones.
- 随时评估自身处境。
投资者最危险的地方是他们的优柔寡断。最糟糕的情况是漫长的拒绝——经过数月会议后到来的拒绝。投资者的拒绝就像设计缺陷:不可避免,但如果能尽早发现,代价会小得多。
所以,当你与投资者交谈时,要不断寻找你处境的信号。他们有多大可能给你投资意向书?他们首先需要被说服什么?你不一定总是直截了当地问这些问题——那可能惹人烦——但你总是应该收集关于他们的数据。
投资者倾向于抵制承诺,除非你把他们逼到一定程度。他们的利益是在做出最少决策的同时收集最大量的信息。迫使他们行动的最佳方式当然是竞争性的投资者。但你也可以通过聚焦讨论来施加一些压力:问他们需要回答哪些具体问题才能下定决心,然后回答这些问题。如果你克服了几个障碍,他们又不断提出新的障碍,那么假设他们最终会退缩。
在收集投资者意图的数据时,你必须保持自律。否则,他们引你上钩的欲望会与你自投罗网的欲望结合,产生完全不准确的印象。
用数据来加权你的策略。你可能同时在跟几位投资者谈。聚焦在最可能说“是”的那些人身上。一位潜在投资者的价值,由“如果他们同意会有多好”和“他们同意的可能性”这两个因素组合而成。把最大权重放在第二个因素上。部分原因是投资者最重要的品质就是“投资”。但也因为,正如我提到的,其他投资者对你的看法是影响他们看法的最主要因素。如果你同时在跟几位投资者谈,并且设法让其中一位跨过同意的门槛,这会让其他投资者更感兴趣。所以,如果你聚焦在最热门的投资者身上,并不会牺牲那些温吞的投资者;说服热门的投资者也是说服温吞投资者的最佳方式。
Future
I'm hopeful things won't always be so awkward. I hope that as startups get cheaper and the number of investors increases, raising money will become, if not easy, at least straightforward.
In the meantime, the brokenness of the funding process offers a big opportunity. Most investors have no idea how dangerous they are. They'd be surprised to hear that raising money from them is something that has to be treated as a threat to a company's survival. They just think they need a little more information to make up their minds. They don't get that there are 10 other investors who also want a little more information, and that the process of talking to them all can bring a startup to a standstill for months.
Because investors don't understand the cost of dealing with them, they don't realize how much room there is for a potential competitor to undercut them. I know from my own experience how much faster investors could decide, because we've brought our own time down to 20 minutes (5 minutes of reading an application plus a 10 minute interview plus 5 minutes of discussion). If you were investing more money you'd want to take longer, of course. But if we can decide in 20 minutes, should it take anyone longer than a couple days?
Opportunities like this don't sit unexploited forever, even in an industry as conservative as venture capital. So either existing investors will start to make up their minds faster, or new investors will emerge who do.
In the meantime founders have to treat raising money as a dangerous process. Fortunately, I can fix the biggest danger right here. The biggest danger is surprise. It's that startups will underestimate the difficulty of raising money—that they'll cruise through all the initial steps, but when they turn to raising money they'll find it surprisingly hard, get demoralized, and give up. So I'm telling you in advance: raising money is hard.
未来
我希望事情不会一直这么别扭。我希望随着创业成本降低、投资者数量增加,募资会变得——即使不容易——至少直截了当。
与此同时,募资流程的破碎也提供了一个巨大的机会。大多数投资者不知道他们有多危险。听到说从他们那里募资必须被视为对公司生存的威胁,他们会很惊讶。他们只是觉得需要更多信息来做决定。他们不明白还有10个其他投资者也想要更多信息,而与他们所有人交谈的过程可能让公司停滞数月。
因为投资者不了解与他们打交道的成本,他们没有意识到潜在竞争对手有多大的空间可以削价竞争。从我的经验中,我知道投资者可以做得更快,因为我们已经将我们的决策时间缩短到20分钟(5分钟阅读申请,10分钟面试,5分钟讨论)。当然,如果你要投资更多钱,你会想花更长时间。但如果我们能20分钟做出决定,任何人都应该不超过几天吗?
这样的机会不会永远不被利用,即使在风投这样保守的行业。所以要么现有投资者开始更快地做出决定,要么会出现新的投资者能做到这一点。
与此同时,创始人必须把募资当作一个危险的过程。幸运的是,我在这里就能解决最大的危险。最大的危险是意外。创业公司会低估募资的难度——他们顺利走完所有初始步骤,但等到他们开始募资时,发现异常困难,于是士气低落,最终放弃。所以我提前告诉你:募资很难。


Notes
[1] When investors can't make up their minds, they sometimes describe it as if it were a property of the startup. "You're too early for us," they sometimes say. But which of them, if they were taken back in a time machine to the hour Google was founded, wouldn't offer to invest at any valuation the founders chose? An hour old is not too early if it's the right startup. What "you're too early" really means is "we can't figure out yet whether you'll succeed."
[2] Investors influence one another both directly and indirectly. They influence one another directly through the "buzz" that surrounds a hot startup. But they also influence one another indirectly through the founders. When a lot of investors are interested in you, it increases your confidence in a way that makes you much more attractive to investors. No VC will admit they're influenced by buzz. Some genuinely aren't. But there are few who can say they're not influenced by confidence.
[3] One VC who read this essay wrote: "We try to avoid companies that got bootstrapped with consulting. It creates very bad behaviors/instincts that are hard to erase from a company's culture."
[4] The optimal way to answer the first question is to say that it would be improper to name names, while simultaneously implying that you're talking to a bunch of other VCs who are all about to give you term sheets. If you're the sort of person who understands how to do that, go ahead. If not, don't even try. Nothing annoys VCs more than clumsy efforts to manipulate them.
[5] The disadvantage of expanding a round on the fly is that the valuation is fixed at the start, so if you get a sudden rush of interest, you may have to decide between turning some investors away and selling more of the company than you meant to. That's a good problem to have, however.
[6] I wouldn't say that intelligence doesn't matter in startups. We're only comparing YC startups, who've already made it over a certain threshold.
[7] But not all are. Though most VCs are suits at heart, the most successful ones tend not to be. Oddly enough, the best VCs tend to be the least VC-like.
Thanks to Trevor Blackwell, David Hornik, Jessica Livingston, Robert Morris, and Fred Wilson for reading drafts of this.
注释
[1] 当投资者拿不定主意时,他们有时会描述成是创业公司的属性。“你对我们来说太早了,”他们有时会说。但如果他们被时光机带回到Google创立的那一小时,他们中有谁不会以创始人选择的任何估值投资呢?如果是合适的创业公司,成立一小时并不算早。“你太早了”真正的意思是“我们还不能确定你们是否会成功。”
[2] 投资者之间既直接又间接地相互影响。他们通过围绕热门创业公司的“热潮”直接影响彼此。但他们也通过创始人间接影响彼此。当很多投资者对你感兴趣时,它会以某种方式增强你的自信,让投资者觉得你更有吸引力。没有风投会承认他们受热潮影响。有些人确实不受影响。但很少有人能说自己不受自信的影响。
[3] 一位读过这篇文章的风投写道:“我们试图避免那些以咨询方式自力更生的公司。这会产生很难从公司文化中抹掉的坏习惯/本能。”
[4] 回答第一个问题的最佳方式是,一边说指名道姓不合适,一边暗示你正在跟一堆马上要给你投资意向书的其他风投谈。如果你是那种知道怎么做到这一点的人,那就去做。如果不是,甚至不要尝试。没有什么比笨拙地试图操纵他们更让风投恼火的了。
[5] 临时扩大融资轮次的缺点是,估值在开始时是固定的,所以如果你突然收到大量兴趣,你可能不得不在拒绝一些投资者和出售比你原意更多的公司股份之间做选择。不过这倒是个好问题。
[6] 我不会说智力在创业中不重要。我们只是在比较YC的创业公司,它们已经跨过了某个门槛。
[7] 但并非所有风投都是如此。尽管大多数风投骨子里是西装革履的人,但最成功的那些往往不是。奇怪的是,最好的风投往往最不像风投。
感谢Trevor Blackwell、David Hornik、Jessica Livingston、Robert Morris和Fred Wilson审阅本文草稿。