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How to Get Startup Ideas

Source www.paulgraham.com Glean’d 2026-07-07 15:40 Read 41 min
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Paul Graham argues that the best startup ideas come not from brainstorming but from noticing problems, especially ones you yourself have. Drawing on examples from Microsoft, Apple, Google, and Facebook, he explains that top ideas share three traits: founders want the product, can build it, and few others see its worth. The ideal demand shape is a 'well'—a small group of users who need it urgently, not a large group with lukewarm interest. He advises living at the leading edge of a fast-changing field, building what's interesting, and turning off filters like 'unsexy' and 'schlep.' The essay offers practical tips for students and those in need of an immediate idea, all grounded in Y Combinator's startup experience. It's a must-read for engineers and product thinkers aiming to start a company.

Original · 41 min
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§ 1

How to Get Startup Ideas

November 2012

如何获得创业想法

2012年11月

§ 2

The way to get startup ideas is not to try to think of startup ideas. It's to look for problems, preferably problems you have yourself.

The very best startup ideas tend to have three things in common: they're something the founders themselves want, that they themselves can build, and that few others realize are worth doing. Microsoft, Apple, Yahoo, Google, and Facebook all began this way.

获得创业想法的方法不是努力去想创业点子。而是去寻找问题,最好是那些你自己遇到的问题。

最优秀的创业想法往往有三个共同点:它们是创始人自己想要的东西,是创始人自己能构建的东西,并且很少有人意识到它们值得去做。微软、苹果、雅虎、谷歌和Facebook都是这样开始的。

§ 3

Why is it so important to work on a problem you have? Among other things, it ensures the problem really exists. It sounds obvious to say you should only work on problems that exist. And yet by far the most common mistake startups make is to solve problems no one has.

I made it myself. In 1995 I started a company to put art galleries online. But galleries didn't want to be online. It's not how the art business works. So why did I spend 6 months working on this stupid idea? Because I didn't pay attention to users. I invented a model of the world that didn't correspond to reality, and worked from that. I didn't notice my model was wrong until I tried to convince users to pay for what we'd built. Even then I took embarrassingly long to catch on. I was attached to my model of the world, and I'd spent a lot of time on the software. They had to want it!

Why do so many founders build things no one wants? Because they begin by trying to think of startup ideas. That m.o. is doubly dangerous: it doesn't merely yield few good ideas; it yields bad ideas that sound plausible enough to fool you into working on them.

At YC we call these "made-up" or "sitcom" startup ideas. Imagine one of the characters on a TV show was starting a startup. The writers would have to invent something for it to do. But coming up with good startup ideas is hard. It's not something you can do for the asking. So (unless they got amazingly lucky) the writers would come up with an idea that sounded plausible, but was actually bad.

为什么你必须解决自己遇到的问题?这很关键,因为它确保了问题真实存在。你当然应该只解决真实存在的问题,这听起来显而易见。然而到目前为止,创业公司最常见的错误就是去解决没有人遇到的问题。

我自己就犯过这个错误。1995年,我创办了一家公司,想把艺术画廊搬到网上。但画廊不想上线,这根本不是艺术行业的运作方式。那么我为什么花了6个月做这个愚蠢的想法?因为我不关注用户。我发明了一个与世界现实不符的模型,并以此为基础工作。直到我试图说服用户为我们构建的东西付费时,我才注意到我的模型错了。即使在那时,我也花了很长时间才醒悟过来。我太执着于我的世界模型,而且我在软件上投入了大量时间。他们必须想要它!

为什么这么多创始人构建了无人想要的东西?因为他们从试图想出创业点子开始。这种工作方式有双重危险:它不仅很少产生好点子;而且会产生听起来足够合理以至于骗你投入进去的坏点子。

在YC,我们把这些称为“虚构的”或“情景剧式”创业想法。想象一下电视剧中的一个角色要创业。编剧必须为其编造一些事情来做。但想出好的创业想法很难,这不是你要求就能得到的东西。所以(除非他们运气极好)编剧会想出一个听起来合理但实际上很糟糕的主意。

§ 4

For example, a social network for pet owners. It doesn't sound obviously mistaken. Millions of people have pets. Often they care a lot about their pets and spend a lot of money on them. Surely many of these people would like a site where they could talk to other pet owners. Not all of them perhaps, but if just 2 or 3 percent were regular visitors, you could have millions of users. You could serve them targeted offers, and maybe charge for premium features.

The danger of an idea like this is that when you run it by your friends with pets, they don't say "I would never use this." They say "Yeah, maybe I could see using something like that." Even when the startup launches, it will sound plausible to a lot of people. They don't want to use it themselves, at least not right now, but they could imagine other people wanting it. Sum that reaction across the entire population, and you have zero users.

例如,一个宠物主人的社交网络。这听起来并不明显错误。数百万人拥有宠物。他们通常很关心自己的宠物并在它们身上花很多钱。当然,很多人会喜欢一个可以与其他宠物主人交流的网站。也许不是全部,但如果只有2%或3%的人成为常规访客,你就可以拥有数百万用户。你可以向他们提供定向优惠,也许还可以收取高级功能的费用。

这类想法的危险在于,当你向养宠物的朋友提及它时,他们不会说“我永远不会用这个”。他们会说:“嗯,也许我可以想象使用类似的东西。”即使创业公司推出了产品,对很多人来说它听起来也是合理的。他们自己不想用,至少现在不想,但他们能想象其他人想要。将这种反应累积到整个人群中,结果就是零用户。

§ 5

When a startup launches, there have to be at least some users who really need what they're making — not just people who could see themselves using it one day, but who want it urgently. Usually this initial group of users is small, for the simple reason that if there were something that large numbers of people urgently needed and that could be built with the amount of effort a startup usually puts into a version one, it would probably already exist. Which means you have to compromise on one dimension: you can either build something a large number of people want a small amount, or something a small number of people want a large amount. Choose the latter. Not all ideas of that type are good startup ideas, but nearly all good startup ideas are of that type.

Imagine a graph whose x axis represents all the people who might want what you're making and whose y axis represents how much they want it. If you invert the scale on the y axis, you can envision companies as holes. Google is an immense crater: hundreds of millions of people use it, and they need it a lot. A startup just starting out can't expect to excavate that much volume. So you have two choices about the shape of hole you start with. You can either dig a hole that's broad but shallow, or one that's narrow and deep, like a well.

Made-up startup ideas are usually of the first type. Lots of people are mildly interested in a social network for pet owners.

Nearly all good startup ideas are of the second type. Microsoft was a well when they made Altair Basic. There were only a couple thousand Altair owners, but without this software they were programming in machine language. Thirty years later Facebook had the same shape. Their first site was exclusively for Harvard students, of which there are only a few thousand, but those few thousand users wanted it a lot.

When you have an idea for a startup, ask yourself: who wants this right now? Who wants this so much that they'll use it even when it's a crappy version one made by a two-person startup they've never heard of? If you can't answer that, the idea is probably bad.

当一家创业公司推出产品时,必须至少有一些用户真正需要他们正在构建的东西——不仅仅是那些能想象自己某天会使用的人,而是那些迫切想要它的人。通常这第一批用户很少,原因很简单:如果有什么东西是大量人群迫切需要的,并且可以用创业公司通常投入版本一的努力来构建,那么它可能已经存在了。这意味着你不得不在一个维度上妥协:要么构建大量人想要一点点的东西,要么构建少量人想要很多的东西。选择后者。并非所有那种类型的想法都是好的创业想法,但几乎所有好的创业想法都是那种类型。

想象一个图表,x轴代表所有可能想要你产品的人,y轴代表他们想要的强度。如果你颠倒y轴的刻度,你可以把公司想象成坑洞。谷歌是一个巨大的陨石坑:数亿人使用它,并且非常需要它。一家刚起步的公司不能期望挖掘那么大的体积。所以你对于起步时的坑洞形状有两种选择:你可以挖一个宽而浅的坑,或者一个窄而深的坑,就像一口井。

虚构的创业想法通常是第一种类型。很多人对宠物主人的社交网络有点兴趣。

几乎所有的好创业想法都是第二种类型。微软在制造Altair Basic时就挖了一口井。只有几千名Altair用户,但没有这个软件,他们就只能使用机器语言编程。三十年后,Facebook有着同样的形状。他们的第一个网站只针对哈佛学生,只有几千人,但这些几千用户非常想要它。

当你有一个创业想法时,问问自己:现在谁想要这个?谁如此想要它,以至于他们会在产品还是个糟糕的版本一、由一家闻所未闻的两人创业公司打造时就使用它?如果你回答不了这个问题,那么这个想法可能很糟糕。

§ 6

How do you tell whether there's a path out of an idea? How do you tell whether something is the germ of a giant company, or just a niche product? Often you can't. The founders of Airbnb didn't realize at first how big a market they were tapping. Initially they had a much narrower idea. They were going to let hosts rent out space on their floors during conventions. They didn't foresee the expansion of this idea; it forced itself upon them gradually. All they knew at first is that they were onto something. That's probably as much as Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg knew at first.

Occasionally it's obvious from the beginning when there's a path out of the initial niche. And sometimes I can see a path that's not immediately obvious; that's one of our specialties at YC. But there are limits to how well this can be done, no matter how much experience you have. The most important thing to understand about paths out of the initial idea is the meta-fact that these are hard to see.

So if you can't predict whether there's a path out of an idea, how do you choose between ideas? The truth is disappointing but interesting: if you're the right sort of person, you have the right sort of hunches. If you're at the leading edge of a field that's changing fast, when you have a hunch that something is worth doing, you're more likely to be right.

In Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance, Robert Pirsig says:

You want to know how to paint a perfect painting? It's easy. Make yourself perfect and then just paint naturally.

I've wondered about that passage since I read it in high school. I'm not sure how useful his advice is for painting specifically, but it fits this situation well. Empirically, the way to have good startup ideas is to become the sort of person who has them.

Being at the leading edge of a field doesn't mean you have to be one of the people pushing it forward. You can also be at the leading edge as a user. It was not so much because he was a programmer that Facebook seemed a good idea to Mark Zuckerberg as because he used computers so much. If you'd asked most 40 year olds in 2004 whether they'd like to publish their lives semi-publicly on the Internet, they'd have been horrified at the idea. But Mark already lived online; to him it seemed natural.

Paul Buchheit says that people at the leading edge of a rapidly changing field "live in the future." Combine that with Pirsig and you get:

Live in the future, then build what's missing.

That describes the way many if not most of the biggest startups got started. Neither Apple nor Yahoo nor Google nor Facebook were even supposed to be companies at first. They grew out of things their founders built because there seemed a gap in the world.

If you look at the way successful founders have had their ideas, it's generally the result of some external stimulus hitting a prepared mind. Bill Gates and Paul Allen hear about the Altair and think "I bet we could write a Basic interpreter for it." Drew Houston realizes he's forgotten his USB stick and thinks "I really need to make my files live online." Lots of people heard about the Altair. Lots forgot USB sticks. The reason those stimuli caused those founders to start companies was that their experiences had prepared them to notice the opportunities they represented.

The verb you want to be using with respect to startup ideas is not "think up" but "notice." At YC we call ideas that grow naturally out of the founders' own experiences "organic" startup ideas. The most successful startups almost all begin this way.

That may not have been what you wanted to hear. You may have expected recipes for coming up with startup ideas, and instead I'm telling you that the key is to have a mind that's prepared in the right way. But disappointing though it may be, this is the truth. And it is a recipe of a sort, just one that in the worst case takes a year rather than a weekend.

If you're not at the leading edge of some rapidly changing field, you can get to one. For example, anyone reasonably smart can probably get to an edge of programming (e.g. building mobile apps) in a year. Since a successful startup will consume at least 3-5 years of your life, a year's preparation would be a reasonable investment. Especially if you're also looking for a cofounder.

你如何判断一个想法是否有出路?如何判断某样东西是伟大公司的种子,还是只是一个利基产品?通常你无法判断。Airbnb的创始人最初并不知道他们挖掘的市场有多大。最初他们的想法要狭窄得多:他们打算让房东在会议期间出租地板上的空间。他们没有预见这个想法的扩张;它逐渐自我显现。他们起初只知道自己做对了某事。比尔·盖茨或马克·扎克伯格在最初可能也只知道这么多。

偶尔,从初始利基找到路径从一开始就很明显。有时我能看到一条并非显而易见的路径;这是我们在YC的专长之一。但无论如何经验丰富,这件事能做好都是有限度的。关于从初始想法中找到路径,最重要的一点是元事实:这些路径很难看到。

所以如果你无法预测一个想法是否有出路,你如何在各个想法之间做选择?真相令人失望但有趣:如果你是合适类型的人,你会有合适的直觉。如果你身处快速变化领域的前沿,当你直觉某件事值得去做时,你更可能是对的。

在《禅与摩托车维修艺术》中,罗伯特·波西格说:

你想知道如何画出完美的画吗?这很容易。让自己变得完美,然后自然而然地画。

自从高中读到这段话,我就一直在思考。我不确定他的建议对绘画具体有多大用处,但它非常适合眼前的情况。经验上,获得好创业想法的方法就是成为那种拥有它们的人。

处于领域前沿并不意味着你必须成为推动它前进的人之一。你也可以作为用户处于前沿。Facebook对马克·扎克伯格来说是个好主意,与其说因为他是程序员,不如说他使用电脑非常频繁。如果你在2004年问大多数40岁的人是否愿意半公开地在互联网上发布他们的生活,他们会对此感到害怕。但马克已经生活在网上;对他来说这看起来自然。

保罗·布赫海特说,身处快速变化领域前沿的人“生活在未来”。结合波西格的说法,你会得到:

生活在未来,然后构建缺失的东西。

这描述了许多(如果不是大多数)最大创业公司起步的方式。苹果、雅虎、谷歌和Facebook最初甚至都不是打算成为公司。它们源于创始人因为觉得世界上有空白而构建的东西。

如果你看看成功创始人是如何产生想法的,通常是外界刺激击中了准备好的头脑。比尔·盖茨和保罗·艾伦听说Altair后想:“我打赌我们可以为它编写一个Basic解释器。”德鲁·休斯顿意识到他忘记了U盘,然后想:“我真的需要让我的文件在线。”很多人听说过Altair。很多人忘记过U盘。这些刺激之所以让那些创始人创办公司,是因为他们的经历让他们准备好注意到这些刺激代表的机会。

关于创业想法,你应当使用的动词不是“想出来”,而是“注意到”。在YC,我们把自然源于创始人自身经历的想法称为“有机”创业想法。最成功的创业公司几乎都是这样开始的。

这可能不是你想听到的。你可能期望得到想出创业想法的食谱,但现在我告诉你关键是要有一个以正确方式准备好的头脑。但尽管可能令人失望,这是事实。它也算是一种食谱,只是最坏情况下需要一年而不是一个周末。

如果你不处于快速变化领域的前沿,你可以到达那里。例如,任何足够聪明的人大概都能在一年内到达编程的前沿(比如构建移动应用)。既然一个成功的创业会消耗你至少3-5年的生命,一年的准备是合理的投资。特别是如果你同时还在寻找联合创始人。

§ 7

Once you're living in the future in some respect, the way to notice startup ideas is to look for things that seem to be missing. If you're really at the leading edge of a rapidly changing field, there will be things that are obviously missing. What won't be obvious is that they're startup ideas. So if you want to find startup ideas, don't merely turn on the filter "What's missing?" Also turn off every other filter, particularly "Could this be a big company?" There's plenty of time to apply that test later. But if you're thinking about that initially, it may not only filter out lots of good ideas, but also cause you to focus on bad ones.

Most things that are missing will take some time to see. You almost have to trick yourself into seeing the ideas around you.

But you know the ideas are out there. This is not one of those problems where there might not be an answer. It's impossibly unlikely that this is the exact moment when technological progress stops. You can be sure people are going to build things in the next few years that will make you think "What did I do before x?"

And when these problems get solved, they will probably seem flamingly obvious in retrospect. What you need to do is turn off the filters that usually prevent you from seeing them. The most powerful is simply taking the current state of the world for granted. Even the most radically open-minded of us mostly do that. You couldn't get from your bed to the front door if you stopped to question everything.

But if you're looking for startup ideas you can sacrifice some of the efficiency of taking the status quo for granted and start to question things. Why is your inbox overflowing? Because you get a lot of email, or because it's hard to get email out of your inbox? Why do you get so much email? What problems are people trying to solve by sending you email? Are there better ways to solve them? And why is it hard to get emails out of your inbox? Why do you keep emails around after you've read them? Is an inbox the optimal tool for that?

Pay particular attention to things that chafe you. The advantage of taking the status quo for granted is not just that it makes life (locally) more efficient, but also that it makes life more tolerable. If you knew about all the things we'll get in the next 50 years but don't have yet, you'd find present day life pretty constraining, just as someone from the present would if they were sent back 50 years in a time machine. When something annoys you, it could be because you're living in the future.

When you find the right sort of problem, you should probably be able to describe it as obvious, at least to you. When we started Viaweb, all the online stores were built by hand, by web designers making individual HTML pages. It was obvious to us as programmers that these sites would have to be generated by software.

Which means, strangely enough, that coming up with startup ideas is a question of seeing the obvious. That suggests how weird this process is: you're trying to see things that are obvious, and yet that you hadn't seen.

Since what you need to do here is loosen up your own mind, it may be best not to make too much of a direct frontal attack on the problem — i.e. to sit down and try to think of ideas. The best plan may be just to keep a background process running, looking for things that seem to be missing. Work on hard problems, driven mainly by curiosity, but have a second self watching over your shoulder, taking note of gaps and anomalies.

一旦你在某个方面生活在未来,注意到创业想法的方法就是寻找看似缺失的东西。如果你真的处于快速变化领域的前沿,就会有明显缺失的东西。不明显的是它们是创业想法。所以如果你想找到创业想法,不要仅仅打开“缺失什么?”的过滤器。还要关闭所有其他过滤器,特别是“这能成为一家大公司吗?”以后有的是时间应用这个测试。但如果你一开始就在想这个,它可能不仅会过滤掉很多好想法,还会让你专注于坏想法。

大多数缺失的东西需要一些时间才能看到。你几乎必须骗自己看到周围的点子。

但你知道想法就在那里。这不是那种可能没有答案的问题。技术恰好在这个时刻停止,这是极不可能的。你可以确定在接下来的几年里,人们会构建一些让你想“我在x之前做了什么?”的东西。

而当这些问题得到解决时,它们在回顾时可能会显得极其明显。你需要做的就是关闭通常阻止你看到它们的过滤器。最强大的过滤器就是简单地把世界的当前状态视为理所当然。即使是我们中间思想最开放的人也大多这样做。如果你停下来质疑一切,你甚至无法从床上走到前门。

但如果你在寻找创业想法,你可以牺牲一些把现状视为理所当然的效率,开始质疑事物。为什么你的收件箱爆满?因为你收到很多邮件,还是因为邮件很难从收件箱移出?你为什么收到这么多邮件?人们通过给你发邮件试图解决什么问题?有没有更好的方法来解决这些问题?为什么把邮件从收件箱移出很难?为什么你读完邮件后还保留着它们?收件箱是最优的工具吗?

特别关注那些让你烦恼的事情。把现状视为理所当然的好处不仅是让生活(局部)更高效,而且让生活更可忍受。如果你知道我们在未来50年会拥有但现在还没有的所有东西,你会发现今天的生活相当受限,就像来自现在的人如果被送回50年前一样。当某件事惹恼你时,可能是因为你生活在未来。

当你找到合适类型的问题时,你应该能把它描述为显而易见的,至少对你来说是这样。当我们创办Viaweb时,所有在线商店都是手工构建的,由网页设计师制作独立的HTML页面。对我们程序员来说,这些网站显然应该由软件生成。

这很奇怪的意味着,想出创业想法就是看到显而易见的东西的问题。这表明这个过程有多奇怪:你试图看到显而易见、但你之前没有看到的东西。

既然你需要做的是放松自己的头脑,也许最好不要对问题直接正面攻击——即坐下来努力想点子。最好的计划可能只是保持一个后台进程在运行,寻找看似缺失的东西。在好奇心的驱动下解决困难问题,但让另一个自我在一旁观察,注意空白和异常。

§ 8

That's what I'd advise college students to do, rather than trying to learn about "entrepreneurship." "Entrepreneurship" is something you learn best by doing it. The examples of the most successful founders make that clear. What you should be spending your time on in college is ratcheting yourself into the future. College is an incomparable opportunity to do that. What a waste to sacrifice an opportunity to solve the hard part of starting a startup — becoming the sort of person who can have organic startup ideas — by spending time learning about the easy part. Especially since you won't even really learn about it, any more than you'd learn about sex in a class. All you'll learn is the words for things.

The clash of domains is a particularly fruitful source of ideas. If you know a lot about programming and you start learning about some other field, you'll probably see problems that software could solve. In fact, you're doubly likely to find good problems in another domain: (a) the inhabitants of that domain are not as likely as software people to have already solved their problems with software, and (b) since you come into the new domain totally ignorant, you don't even know what the status quo is to take it for granted.

So if you're a CS major and you want to start a startup, instead of taking a class on entrepreneurship you're better off taking a class on, say, genetics. Or better still, go work for a biotech company. CS majors normally get summer jobs at computer hardware or software companies. But if you want to find startup ideas, you might do better to get a summer job in some unrelated field.

Or don't take any extra classes, and just build things. It's no coincidence that Microsoft and Facebook both got started in January. At Harvard that is (or was) Reading Period, when students have no classes to attend because they're supposed to be studying for finals.

But don't feel like you have to build things that will become startups. That's premature optimization. Just build things. Preferably with other students. It's not just the classes that make a university such a good place to crank oneself into the future. You're also surrounded by other people trying to do the same thing. If you work together with them on projects, you'll end up producing not just organic ideas, but organic ideas with organic founding teams — and that, empirically, is the best combination.

Beware of research. If an undergrad writes something all his friends start using, it's quite likely to represent a good startup idea. Whereas a PhD dissertation is extremely unlikely to. For some reason, the more a project has to count as research, the less likely it is to be something that could be turned into a startup.

这就是我建议大学生做的,而不是试图学习“创业学”。“创业学”是你通过实践才能最好学习的东西。最成功创始人的例子说明了这一点。你在大学应该花时间的是把自己推向未来。大学是做到这一点的无与伦比的机会。把解决创业最难部分(成为能拥有有机创业想法的人)的机会浪费在学习容易部分上,真是太浪费了。尤其因为你甚至不会真正学到它,就像你不会在课堂上学习性一样。你只会学到事物的词汇。

领域的碰撞是特别富有成果的想法来源。如果你懂很多编程,然后开始学习另一个领域,你很可能会看到软件可以解决的问题。事实上,你在另一个领域发现好问题的可能性是双倍的:(a)该领域的居民不太可能像软件人士那样已经用软件解决了问题;(b)因为你进入新领域时完全无知,你甚至不知道现状是什么以至于把它视为理所当然。

所以如果你是计算机专业的学生,想创业,与其上创业课,不如上一门比如遗传学的课。或者更好的是,去一家生物科技公司工作。计算机专业的学生通常在计算机硬件或软件公司找暑期工作。但如果你想找到创业想法,也许在一个不相关的领域做暑期工作会更好。

或者不上任何额外的课,就只是构建东西。微软和Facebook都在1月起步,这不是巧合。在哈佛,那是阅读期(曾经是),学生没有课要上,因为他们应该为期末考试复习。

但不要觉得你必须构建那些会成为创业公司的东西。那是过早优化。就只是构建东西。最好和其他学生一起。大学不仅是因为课程才成为把自己推入未来的好地方。你也与尝试做同样事情的人为伴。如果你和他们一起做项目,你最终不仅会得到有机的点子,还会得到有机的创始团队——而且经验证明,这是最好的组合。

警惕研究。如果一个本科生写了个东西,他所有的朋友都开始使用,这很可能代表一个好的创业想法。而博士论文则极不可能。出于某种原因,一个项目越需要被算作研究,就越不可能成为能转化为创业公司的东西。

§ 9

Because a good idea should seem obvious, when you have one you'll tend to feel that you're late. Don't let that deter you. Worrying that you're late is one of the signs of a good idea. Ten minutes of searching the web will usually settle the question. Even if you find someone else working on the same thing, you're probably not too late. It's exceptionally rare for startups to be killed by competitors — so rare that you can almost discount the possibility. So unless you discover a competitor with the sort of lock-in that would prevent users from choosing you, don't discard the idea.

If you're uncertain, ask users. The question of whether you're too late is subsumed by the question of whether anyone urgently needs what you plan to make. If you have something that no competitor does and that some subset of users urgently need, you have a beachhead.

The question then is whether that beachhead is big enough. Or more importantly, who's in it: if the beachhead consists of people doing something lots more people will be doing in the future, then it's probably big enough no matter how small it is. For example, if you're building something differentiated from competitors by the fact that it works on phones, but it only works on the newest phones, that's probably a big enough beachhead.

Err on the side of doing things where you'll face competitors. Inexperienced founders usually give competitors more credit than they deserve. Whether you succeed depends far more on you than on your competitors. So better a good idea with competitors than a bad one without.

You don't need to worry about entering a "crowded market" so long as you have a thesis about what everyone else in it is overlooking. In fact that's a very promising starting point. Google was that type of idea. Your thesis has to be more precise than "we're going to make an x that doesn't suck" though. You have to be able to phrase it in terms of something the incumbents are overlooking. Best of all is when you can say that they didn't have the courage of their convictions, and that your plan is what they'd have done if they'd followed through on their own insights. Google was that type of idea too. The search engines that preceded them shied away from the most radical implications of what they were doing — particularly that the better a job they did, the faster users would leave.

A crowded market is actually a good sign, because it means both that there's demand and that none of the existing solutions are good enough. A startup can't hope to enter a market that's obviously big and yet in which they have no competitors. So any startup that succeeds is either going to be entering a market with existing competitors, but armed with some secret weapon that will get them all the users (like Google), or entering a market that looks small but which will turn out to be big (like Microsoft).

因为一个好想法应该看起来显而易见,所以当你有一个好想法时,你往往会有种感觉:你晚了。不要让这阻止你。担心自己晚了正是好想法的标志之一。花十分钟搜索网络通常就能解答这个问题。即使你发现别人也在做同样的事情,你很可能还没有太晚。创业公司被竞争对手杀死的情况极为罕见——罕见得你几乎可以忽略这种可能性。所以除非你发现一个竞争对手具有阻止用户选择你的锁定效应,否则不要放弃这个想法。

如果不确定,问问用户。你是否太晚的问题,被归入是否有人迫切需要你计划构建的东西的问题。如果你有竞争对手没有的东西,并且有一部分用户迫切地需要它,你就有了一个滩头阵地。

那么问题就变成了这个滩头阵地是否足够大。或者更重要的是,谁在阵地里:如果滩头阵地由那些做着将来会有更多人做的事情的人组成,那么无论它多小,可能都足够大。例如,如果你正在构建的东西与竞争对手的区别在于它能在手机上运行,但只适用于最新款手机,那很可能是一个足够大的滩头阵地。

宁可选择你会面对竞争对手的事情也不回避。缺乏经验的创始人通常高估了竞争对手。你能否成功更多地取决于你而不是你的竞争对手。所以有好想法但有竞争对手,比有坏想法但没有竞争对手要好。

只要你对其他所有人忽视了什么有独特的见解,你就不必担心进入“拥挤的市场”。事实上,那是一个很有前景的起点。谷歌就是那种想法。不过你的见解不能只是“我们要做一个不烂的x”。你必须能够用现有玩家忽视了什么来表述。最好的情况是,你能说他们没有勇气坚持自己的信念,而你的计划就是如果他们将自身洞察贯彻到底就会做的事情。谷歌也是那种想法。它之前的搜索引擎回避了它们所做事情的最激进的含义——特别是它们做得越好,用户离开得越快。

一个拥挤的市场实际上是一个好迹象,因为它既意味着有需求,也意味着现有的解决方案都不够好。一家创业公司不可能期望进入一个明显很大但却没有竞争对手的市场。所以任何成功的创业公司要么是进入一个已有竞争对手的市场,但拥有某种能够获得所有用户的秘密武器(像谷歌),要么是进入一个看起来很小但最终会变大的市场(像微软)。

§ 10

There are two more filters you'll need to turn off if you want to notice startup ideas: the unsexy filter and the schlep filter.

Most programmers wish they could start a startup by just writing some brilliant code, pushing it to a server, and having users pay them lots of money. They'd prefer not to deal with tedious problems or get involved in messy ways with the real world. Which is a reasonable preference, because such things slow you down. But this preference is so widespread that the space of convenient startup ideas has been stripped pretty clean. If you let your mind wander a few blocks down the street to the messy, tedious ideas, you'll find valuable ones just sitting there waiting to be implemented.

The schlep filter is so dangerous that I wrote a separate essay about the condition it induces, which I called schlep blindness. I gave Stripe as an example of a startup that benefited from turning off this filter, and a pretty striking example it is. Thousands of programmers were in a position to see this idea; thousands of programmers knew how painful it was to process payments before Stripe. But when they looked for startup ideas they didn't see this one, because unconsciously they shrank from having to deal with payments. And dealing with payments is a schlep for Stripe, but not an intolerable one. In fact they might have had net less pain; because the fear of dealing with payments kept most people away from this idea, Stripe has had comparatively smooth sailing in other areas that are sometimes painful, like user acquisition. They didn't have to try very hard to make themselves heard by users, because users were desperately waiting for what they were building.

The unsexy filter is similar to the schlep filter, except it keeps you from working on problems you despise rather than ones you fear. We overcame this one to work on Viaweb. There were interesting things about the architecture of our software, but we weren't interested in ecommerce per se. We could see the problem was one that needed to be solved though.

Turning off the schlep filter is more important than turning off the unsexy filter, because the schlep filter is more likely to be an illusion. And even to the degree it isn't, it's a worse form of self-indulgence. Starting a successful startup is going to be fairly laborious no matter what. Even if the product doesn't entail a lot of schleps, you'll still have plenty dealing with investors, hiring and firing people, and so on. So if there's some idea you think would be cool but you're kept away from by fear of the schleps involved, don't worry: any sufficiently good idea will have as many.

The unsexy filter, while still a source of error, is not as entirely useless as the schlep filter. If you're at the leading edge of a field that's changing rapidly, your ideas about what's sexy will be somewhat correlated with what's valuable in practice. Particularly as you get older and more experienced. Plus if you find an idea sexy, you'll work on it more enthusiastically.

如果你想要注意到创业想法,还需要关闭两个过滤器:无趣过滤器和繁琐过滤器。

大多数程序员希望他们只需要写一些精彩的代码,推送到服务器,然后用户就会付给他们很多钱。他们宁愿不去处理繁琐的问题,也不愿以混乱的方式卷入现实世界。这是一个合理的偏好,因为这些事情会拖慢你的速度。但这种偏好如此普遍,以至于方便型创业想法的空间已经被扫荡干净。如果你让自己的思维偏移几个街区,进入混乱、繁琐的想法,你会发现有价值的东西就坐在那里等待被实现。

繁琐过滤器非常危险,以至于我专门写了一篇文章来讨论它引发的状况,我称之为“繁琐盲点”。我以Stripe为例,说明一家创业公司如何因关闭这个过滤器而受益,这是一个相当引人注目的例子。成千上万的程序员处于能够看到这个想法的位置;成千上万的程序员知道在Stripe之前处理支付有多么痛苦。但当他们寻找创业想法时,他们没有看到这一个,因为潜意识里他们回避处理支付。而处理支付对Stripe来说是繁琐的,但并不是无法忍受。事实上,他们可能净痛苦更少;因为对处理支付的恐惧让大多数人远离了这个想法,Stripe在其它有时痛苦的领域(比如用户获取)相对顺利。他们不必太努力让用户听到他们,因为用户正拼命等待他们构建的东西。

无趣过滤器类似于繁琐过滤器,只是它阻止你处理你鄙视的问题而不是你害怕的问题。为了做Viaweb我们克服了这一点。我们软件的架构有一些有趣的东西,但我们本身对电子商务不感兴趣。不过,我们看到这个问题是需要解决的。

关闭繁琐过滤器比关闭无趣过滤器更重要,因为繁琐过滤器更可能是一种错觉。即使不是错觉,它也是一种更糟糕的自我放纵形式。无论如何,成功创业都是相当费力的。即使产品不涉及太多繁琐工作,你仍然会有很多与投资者打交道、招聘和解雇员工等事务。所以,如果你觉得某个想法很酷,但因为害怕涉及的繁琐工作而退缩,别担心:任何足够好的想法都会有同样多的繁琐工作。

无趣过滤器虽然仍然是错误的来源,但并非像繁琐过滤器那样完全无用。如果你处于快速变化领域的前沿,你对什么有趣的想法会在一定程度上与实践中什么有价值相关。尤其是随着年龄和经验的增长。另外,如果你发现一个想法有趣,你会更热情地投入工作。

§ 11

While the best way to discover startup ideas is to become the sort of person who has them and then build whatever interests you, sometimes you don't have that luxury. Sometimes you need an idea now. For example, if you're working on a startup and your initial idea turns out to be bad.

For the rest of this essay I'll talk about tricks for coming up with startup ideas on demand. Although empirically you're better off using the organic strategy, you could succeed this way. You just have to be more disciplined. When you use the organic method, you don't even notice an idea unless it's evidence that something is truly missing. But when you make a conscious effort to think of startup ideas, you have to replace this natural constraint with self-discipline. You'll see a lot more ideas, most of them bad, so you need to be able to filter them.

One of the biggest dangers of not using the organic method is the example of the organic method. Organic ideas feel like inspirations. There are a lot of stories about successful startups that began when the founders had what seemed a crazy idea but "just knew" it was promising. When you feel that about an idea you've had while trying to come up with startup ideas, you're probably mistaken.

When searching for ideas, look in areas where you have some expertise. If you're a database expert, don't build a chat app for teenagers (unless you're also a teenager). Maybe it's a good idea, but you can't trust your judgment about that, so ignore it. There have to be other ideas that involve databases, and whose quality you can judge. Do you find it hard to come up with good ideas involving databases? That's because your expertise raises your standards. Your ideas about chat apps are just as bad, but you're giving yourself a Dunning-Kruger pass in that domain.

The place to start looking for ideas is things you need. There must be things you need.

One good trick is to ask yourself whether in your previous job you ever found yourself saying "Why doesn't someone make x? If someone made x we'd buy it in a second." If you can think of any x people said that about, you probably have an idea. You know there's demand, and people don't say that about things that are impossible to build.

More generally, try asking yourself whether there's something unusual about you that makes your needs different from most other people's. You're probably not the only one. It's especially good if you're different in a way people will increasingly be.

If you're changing ideas, one unusual thing about you is the idea you'd previously been working on. Did you discover any needs while working on it? Several well-known startups began this way. Hotmail began as something its founders wrote to talk about their previous startup idea while they were working at their day jobs.

A particularly promising way to be unusual is to be young. Some of the most valuable new ideas take root first among people in their teens and early twenties. And while young founders are at a disadvantage in some respects, they're the only ones who really understand their peers. It would have been very hard for someone who wasn't a college student to start Facebook. So if you're a young founder (under 23 say), are there things you and your friends would like to do that current technology won't let you?

虽然发现创业想法的最佳方式是成为那种拥有想法的人,然后构建任何让你感兴趣的东西,但有时你没有这种奢侈。有时你立即就需要一个想法。例如,如果你正在做一个创业项目,而最初的想法被证明是糟糕的。

接下来我将讨论一些按需产生创业想法的技巧。虽然经验上使用有机策略更好,但你也可能通过这种方式成功。只是你需要更有纪律性。使用有机方法时,除非一个想法是某事真正缺失的证据,否则你甚至不会注意到它。但当你刻意努力去想创业想法时,你必须用自律来替代这种自然的约束。你会看到更多的想法,其中大部分是坏的,所以你需要能够过滤它们。

不使用有机方法的最大危险之一是有机方法本身的例子。有机想法感觉像是灵感。有很多关于成功创业的故事,创始人们产生了一个看似疯狂但“就是知道”它很有前景的想法。当你在试图想出创业想法时对一个想法有这种感觉,你很可能错了。

寻找想法时,去你有一些专业知识的领域。如果你是数据库专家,不要为青少年构建聊天应用(除非你也是青少年)。也许这是一个好主意,但你不能信任自己对它的判断,所以忽略它。一定还有其他涉及数据库的想法,并且你能判断其质量。你是否觉得很难想出涉及数据库的好主意?那是因为你的专业知识提升了你的标准。你对聊天应用的想法同样糟糕,但你在那个领域给了自己邓宁-克鲁格通行证。

开始寻找想法的地方是你需要的东西。你一定有需要的东西。

一个很好的技巧是问自己,在你之前的工作中,你是否曾说过“为什么没人做x?如果有人做x,我们立刻就买。”如果你能想到任何人们这样说过的x,那么你很可能有了一个想法。你知道需求存在,而且人们不会这样说那些不可能构建的东西。

更一般地说,试着问自己是否有某些与众不同的地方,使你的需求与大多数其他人不同。你很可能不是唯一一个。如果你以某种人们会日益变得不同的方式与众不同,那就特别好。

如果你在转换想法,那么你与众不同的一个地方是你之前一直在做的那个想法。在开发它的过程中,你是否发现了任何需求?几家著名的创业公司就是这样开始的。Hotmail最初是它的创始人用来讨论他们之前的创业想法而编写的,当时他们还在做日常工作。

一个特别有前景的与众不同方式是年轻。一些最有价值的新想法首先在十几岁和二十出头的年轻人中扎根。虽然年轻的创始人在某些方面处于劣势,但他们是唯一真正理解同龄人的人。如果扎克伯格不是大学生,他很难创办Facebook。所以如果你是一位年轻的创始人(比如23岁以下),你和你的朋友有没有想用但当前技术无法实现的事情?

§ 12

The next best thing to an unmet need of your own is an unmet need of someone else. Try talking to everyone you can about the gaps they find in the world. What's missing? What would they like to do that they can't? What's tedious or annoying, particularly in their work? Let the conversation get general; don't be trying too hard to find startup ideas. You're just looking for something to spark a thought. Maybe you'll notice a problem they didn't consciously realize they had, because you know how to solve it.

When you find an unmet need that isn't your own, it may be somewhat blurry at first. The person who needs something may not know exactly what they need. In that case I often recommend that founders act like consultants — that they do what they'd do if they'd been retained to solve the problems of this one user. People's problems are similar enough that nearly all the code you write this way will be reusable, and whatever isn't will be a small price to start out certain that you've reached the bottom of the well.

One way to ensure you do a good job solving other people's problems is to make them your own. When Rajat Suri of E la Carte decided to write software for restaurants, he got a job as a waiter to learn how restaurants worked. That may seem like taking things to extremes, but startups are extreme. We love it when founders do such things.

仅次于你自己的未满足需求的是别人的未满足需求。试着与你遇到的每个人交谈,了解他们在世界中发现的空白。缺少什么?他们想做但做不到的是什么?什么是繁琐或烦人的,尤其是在他们的工作中?让对话变得泛泛;不要过于努力地寻找创业想法。你只是在寻找能激发思考的东西。也许你会注意到他们没有意识到的问题,因为你知道如何解决。

当你发现一个不属于你自己的未满足需求时,起初可能有些模糊。需要东西的人可能说不清具体需要什么。在这种情况下,我经常建议创始人像顾问一样行事——就像他们被雇佣来解决这个用户的问题一样去做。人们的问题足够相似,以至于你用这种方式写的几乎所有代码都是可复用的,而那些不可复用的部分,对于确保你已经触及井底来说,只是很小的代价。

确保你很好解决他人问题的一个方法是把别人的问题变成你自己的。当E la Carte的Rajat Suri决定为餐馆编写软件时,他先找了一份做服务员的工作,从而了解餐馆是如何运作的。这看起来可能有点极端,但创业就是极端的。我们喜欢创始人做这样的事情。

§ 13

In fact, one strategy I recommend to people who need a new idea is not merely to turn off their schlep and unsexy filters, but to seek out ideas that are unsexy or involve schleps. Don't try to start Twitter. Those ideas are so rare that you can't find them by looking for them. Make something unsexy that people will pay you for.

A good trick for bypassing the schlep and to some extent the unsexy filter is to ask what you wish someone else would build, so that you could use it. What would you pay for right now?

Since startups often garbage-collect broken companies and industries, it can be a good trick to look for those that are dying, or deserve to, and try to imagine what kind of company would profit from their demise. For example, journalism is in free fall at the moment. But there may still be money to be made from something like journalism. What sort of company might cause people in the future to say "this replaced journalism" on some axis?

But imagine asking that in the future, not now. When one company or industry replaces another, it usually comes in from the side. So don't look for a replacement for x; look for something that people will later say turned out to be a replacement for x. And be imaginative about the axis along which the replacement occurs. Traditional journalism, for example, is a way for readers to get information and to kill time, a way for writers to make money and to get attention, and a vehicle for several different types of advertising. It could be replaced on any of these axes (it has already started to be on most).

When startups consume incumbents, they usually start by serving some small but important market that the big players ignore. It's particularly good if there's an admixture of disdain in the big players' attitude, because that often misleads them. For example, after Steve Wozniak built the computer that became the Apple I, he felt obliged to give his then-employer Hewlett-Packard the option to produce it. Fortunately for him, they turned it down, and one of the reasons they did was that it used a TV for a monitor, which seemed intolerably d�class� to a high-end hardware company like HP was at the time.

Are there groups of scruffy but sophisticated users like the early microcomputer "hobbyists" that are currently being ignored by the big players? A startup with its sights set on bigger things can often capture a small market easily by expending an effort that wouldn't be justified by that market alone.

Similarly, since the most successful startups generally ride some wave bigger than themselves, it could be a good trick to look for waves and ask how one could benefit from them. The prices of gene sequencing and 3D printing are both experiencing Moore's Law-like declines. What new things will we be able to do in the new world we'll have in a few years? What are we unconsciously ruling out as impossible that will soon be possible?

事实上,我向需要新想法的人推荐的一个策略不仅仅是关闭繁琐和无趣过滤器,而是主动寻找无趣或涉及繁琐工作的想法。不要试图创办Twitter。那些想法太罕见了,你无法通过寻找它们来发现。做一些无趣但人们愿意付钱的东西。

一个绕过繁琐过滤器(一定程度上还有无趣过滤器)的好技巧是问自己,你希望别人为你构建什么,这样你就可以使用了。你现在愿意为什么付钱?

由于创业公司常常像垃圾回收一样处理那些破败的公司和行业,一个很好的技巧是寻找那些正在消亡或应该消亡的行业,然后想象什么样的公司能从它们的死亡中获利。例如,新闻业目前正在自由落体。但类似新闻业的东西可能仍然有利可图。什么样的公司会让未来的人们在某个维度上说“这取代了新闻业”?

但要想象在将来这样问,而不是现在。当一个公司或行业取代另一个时,通常是从侧翼进攻。所以不要寻找x的替代品;寻找那些人们后来会说“结果这成了x的替代品”的东西。并且要对替代发生的维度有想象力。例如,传统新闻业是读者获取信息和消磨时间的方式,是作者赚钱和获得注意力的方式,也是几种不同类型广告的载体。它可以在任何一个维度上被替代(在大多数维度上已经开始被替代了)。

当创业公司蚕食现有玩家时,它们通常从服务某个大玩家忽视的小但重要的市场开始。如果大玩家的态度中掺杂了蔑视,那就特别有利,因为蔑视常常误导他们。例如,史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克制造了后来成为Apple I的计算机后,他觉得有义务给他当时的雇主惠普提供生产它的选择权。幸运的是,他们拒绝了,其中一个原因是它使用电视作为显示器,这对于像惠普当时那样的高端硬件公司来说显得太掉价了。

是否有像早期微型计算机“爱好者”那样不修边幅但精明的用户群体,目前被大玩家忽视?一个志在更大的创业公司往往可以用单独那个市场本身无法证明其合理性的努力,轻易地占领一个小市场。

同样,由于最成功的创业公司通常搭乘比自身更大的浪潮,一个很好的技巧是寻找浪潮,并思考如何从中受益。基因测序和3D打印的价格都在经历类似摩尔定律的下降。在未来几年我们将拥有的新世界里,我们能够做什么新的事情?我们无意识地排除为不可能的事情,哪些很快就会成为可能?

§ 14

But talking about looking explicitly for waves makes it clear that such recipes are plan B for getting startup ideas. Looking for waves is essentially a way to simulate the organic method. If you're at the leading edge of some rapidly changing field, you don't have to look for waves; you are the wave.

Finding startup ideas is a subtle business, and that's why most people who try fail so miserably. It doesn't work well simply to try to think of startup ideas. If you do that, you get bad ones that sound dangerously plausible. The best approach is more indirect: if you have the right sort of background, good startup ideas will seem obvious to you. But even then, not immediately. It takes time to come across situations where you notice something missing. And often these gaps won't seem to be ideas for companies, just things that would be interesting to build. Which is why it's good to have the time and the inclination to build things just because they're interesting.

Live in the future and build what seems interesting. Strange as it sounds, that's the real recipe.

但讨论明确寻找浪潮使得这一点很清楚:这些食谱是获取创业想法的B计划。寻找浪潮本质上是模拟有机方法的一种方式。如果你处于某个快速变化领域的前沿,你不必寻找浪潮;你就是浪潮。

找到创业想法是一件微妙的事情,这就是为什么大多数尝试的人失败得如此惨烈。仅仅试图想出创业想法效果不好。如果你那样做,你会得到听起来危险地合理的坏想法。最好的方法更间接:如果你有合适的背景,好的创业想法对你来说会是显而易见的。但即便如此,也不是立刻。需要时间才能遇到你注意到缺失东西的情况。而且这些空白常常看起来不像公司的点子,只是构建起来有趣的东西。这就是为什么有时间并且有意愿仅仅因为有趣而去构建东西是好的。

生活在未来,构建看起来有趣的东西。虽然听起来奇怪,但这是真正的食谱。

§ 15

[1] This form of bad idea has been around as long as the web. It was common in the 1990s, except then people who had it used to say they were going to create a portal for x instead of a social network for x. Structurally the idea is stone soup: you post a sign saying "this is the place for people interested in x," and all those people show up and you make money from them. What lures founders into this sort of idea are statistics about the millions of people who might be interested in each type of x. What they forget is that any given person might have 20 affinities by this standard, and no one is going to visit 20 different communities regularly.

[2] I'm not saying, incidentally, that I know for sure a social network for pet owners is a bad idea. I know it's a bad idea the way I know randomly generated DNA would not produce a viable organism. The set of plausible sounding startup ideas is many times larger than the set of good ones, and many of the good ones don't even sound that plausible. So if all you know about a startup idea is that it sounds plausible, you have to assume it's bad.

[3] More precisely, the users' need has to give them sufficient activation energy to start using whatever you make, which can vary a lot. For example, the activation energy for enterprise software sold through traditional channels is very high, so you'd have to be a lot better to get users to switch. Whereas the activation energy required to switch to a new search engine is low. Which in turn is why search engines are so much better than enterprise software.

[4] This gets harder as you get older. While the space of ideas doesn't have dangerous local maxima, the space of careers does. There are fairly high walls between most of the paths people take through life, and the older you get, the higher the walls become.

[5] It was also obvious to us that the web was going to be a big deal. Few non-programmers grasped that in 1995, but the programmers had seen what GUIs had done for desktop computers.

[6] Maybe it would work to have this second self keep a journal, and each night to make a brief entry listing the gaps and anomalies you'd noticed that day. Not startup ideas, just the raw gaps and anomalies.

[7] Sam Altman points out that taking time to come up with an idea is not merely a better strategy in an absolute sense, but also like an undervalued stock in that so few founders do it. There's comparatively little competition for the best ideas, because few founders are willing to put in the time required to notice them. Whereas there is a great deal of competition for mediocre ideas, because when people make up startup ideas, they tend to make up the same ones.

[8] For the computer hardware and software companies, summer jobs are the first phase of the recruiting funnel. But if you're good you can skip the first phase. If you're good you'll have no trouble getting hired by these companies when you graduate, regardless of how you spent your summers.

[9] The empirical evidence suggests that if colleges want to help their students start startups, the best thing they can do is leave them alone in the right way.

[10] I'm speaking here of IT startups; in biotech things are different.

[11] This is an instance of a more general rule: focus on users, not competitors. The most important information about competitors is what you learn via users anyway.

[12] In practice most successful startups have elements of both. And you can describe each strategy in terms of the other by adjusting the boundaries of what you call the market. But it's useful to consider these two ideas separately.

[13] I almost hesitate to raise that point though. Startups are businesses; the point of a business is to make money; and with that additional constraint, you can't expect you'll be able to spend all your time working on what interests you most.

[14] The need has to be a strong one. You can retroactively describe any made-up idea as something you need. But do you really need that recipe site or local event aggregator as much as Drew Houston needed Dropbox, or Brian Chesky and Joe Gebbia needed Airbnb? Quite often at YC I find myself asking founders "Would you use this thing yourself, if you hadn't written it?" and you'd be surprised how often the answer is no.

[15] Paul Buchheit points out that trying to sell something bad can be a source of better ideas: "The best technique I've found for dealing with YC companies that have bad ideas is to tell them to go sell the product ASAP (before wasting time building it). Not only do they learn that nobody wants what they are building, they very often come back with a real idea that they discovered in the process of trying to sell the bad idea."

[16] Here's a recipe that might produce the next Facebook, if you're college students. If you have a connection to one of the more powerful sororities at your school, approach the queen bees thereof and offer to be their personal IT consultants, building anything they could imagine needing in their social lives that didn't already exist. Anything that got built this way would be very promising, because such users are not just the most demanding but also the perfect point to spread from. I have no idea whether this would work.

[17] And the reason it used a TV for a monitor is that Steve Wozniak started out by solving his own problems. He, like most of his peers, couldn't afford a monitor.

Thanks to Sam Altman, Mike Arrington, Paul Buchheit, John Collison, Patrick Collison, Garry Tan, and Harj Taggar for reading drafts of this, and Marc Andreessen, Joe Gebbia, Reid Hoffman, Shel Kaphan, Mike Moritz and Kevin Systrom for answering my questions about startup history.

[1] 这种坏想法自万维网诞生以来就一直存在。它在20世纪90年代很常见,只是当时人们会说他们要创建一个面向x的门户网站,而不是一个面向x的社交网络。这种想法结构上是“石头汤”:你贴一个牌子说“这是对x感兴趣的人的地方”,然后所有那些人都会出现,你从他们身上赚钱。吸引创始人进入这类想法的是关于每一类x可能有数百万人感兴趣的统计数据。他们忘记的是,任何一个人按这个标准可能有20种爱好,没有人会定期访问20个不同的社区。

[2] 顺便说一句,我并不是说我能确定宠物主人的社交网络一定是个坏主意。我知道它是一个坏主意,就像我知道随机生成的DNA不会产生一个可存活的生物体一样。听起来合理的创业想法的集合比好的创业想法要大得多,而且很多好想法甚至听起来不那么合理。所以如果你对一个创业想法只知道它听起来合理,你就必须假设它是坏的。

[3] 更准确地说,用户的需求必须给他们足够的活化能来开始使用你做的任何东西,这可能会变化很大。例如,通过传统渠道销售的企业软件的活化能非常高,所以你必须好很多才能让用户切换。而切换到新搜索引擎所需的活化能很低。这反过来就是为什么搜索引擎比企业软件好得多的原因。

[4] 随着年龄增长,这会变得更难。想法的空间没有危险的局部最大值,但职业的空间有。人们一生中走的大多数路径之间有相当高的墙,而且年龄越大,墙越高。

[5] 对我们来说,网络将变得很重要也是显而易见的。在1995年,很少非程序员能理解这一点,但程序员已经看到了GUI对桌面计算机的影响。

[6] 也许让这个第二自我记日记会有效,每晚简短记录那天你注意到的空白和异常。不是创业想法,只是原始的空白和异常。

[7] Sam Altman指出,花时间想出一个想法不仅在绝对意义上是一个更好的策略,而且像被低估的股票,因为很少有创始人这样做。好想法的竞争相对较少,因为很少有创始人愿意投入注意到它们所需的时间。而平庸想法的竞争非常激烈,因为当人们编造创业想法时,他们倾向于编造相同的想法。

[8] 对于计算机硬件和软件公司来说,暑期工作是招聘漏斗的第一阶段。但如果你足够优秀,你可以跳过第一阶段。如果你优秀,你毕业后很容易被这些公司聘用,无论你如何度过暑假。

[9] 经验证据表明,如果大学想帮助学生创业,他们能做的最好的事情就是以正确的方式让他们自由发展。

[10] 我在这里说的是IT创业;在生物技术领域情况不同。

[11] 这是一个更普遍规则的实例:关注用户,而不是竞争对手。关于竞争对手的最重要信息无论如何都是通过用户了解到的。

[12] 在实践中,大多数成功的创业公司两者兼有。你可以通过调整你称之为市场的边界来用另一个策略描述每个策略。但分开考虑这两个想法是有用的。

[13] 我几乎犹豫是否提出这一点。创业是生意;生意的目的是赚钱;有了这个额外的约束,你不能期望能把所有时间花在最感兴趣的事情上。

[14] 需求必须是强烈的。你可以事后把任何编造的想法描述为你的需求。但你真的需要那个菜谱网站或本地事件聚合器,像Drew Houston需要Dropbox那样,或者像Brian Chesky和Joe Gebbia需要Airbnb那样吗?在YC,我经常问创始人:“如果你没有写这个,你自己会用它吗?”你会惊讶地发现答案常常是否定的。

[15] Paul Buchheit指出,尝试销售坏东西可以成为更好想法的来源:“我发现的处理YC公司坏想法的最佳技巧是告诉他们尽快去销售产品(在浪费时间构建它之前)。他们不仅了解到没人想要他们正在构建的东西,而且常常会带着一个在试图销售坏想法过程中发现的真正想法回来。”

[16] 这里有一个可能产生下一个Facebook的食谱,如果你是在校大学生。如果你与学校里某个比较强大的姐妹会有联系,接近那里的女王蜂,主动提出做她们的私人IT顾问,构建任何她们能想象到的社交生活中需要但尚未存在的东西。用这种方式构建的任何东西都很有前景,因为这样的用户不仅是最苛刻的,也是传播的完美起点。我不知道这是否有效。

[17] 它使用电视作为显示器的原因是史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克从解决自己的问题开始。他和大多数同龄人一样,买不起显示器。

感谢Sam Altman、Mike Arrington、Paul Buchheit、John Collison、Patrick Collison、Garry Tan和Harj Taggar阅读本文的草稿,以及Marc Andreessen、Joe Gebbia、Reid Hoffman、Shel Kaphan、Mike Moritz和Kevin Systrom回答我关于创业历史的问题。

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