高分辨率融资:创业公司如何用可转债打破投资者僵局
Paul Graham 这篇 2010 年的文章解释了创业公司在天使轮越来越多使用可转债(convertible notes)的原因:它允许对不同投资者给出不同价格,从而打破“谁在投?”导致的集体观望僵局。传统固定规模股权轮次中,投资者互相等待,交易拖沓。可转债通过估值上限(valuation cap)实现定价灵活性,率先承诺的投资者获得更低有效估值,承担更多风险。这种“高分辨率融资”让创业公司可根据投资者反应动态调整募资金额,而非预设一个数字。文章还指出,这种机制将奖励更果敢的投资者,而跟风型投资者不仅付更高价,还可能无法进入最优质交易。虽发表于 2010 年,但关于动态定价与投资者行为分层的分析,对当下 AI 创业融资仍有启发意义。
The reason startups have been using more convertible notes in angel rounds is that they make deals close faster. By making it easier for startups to give different prices to different investors, they help them break the sort of deadlock that happens when investors all wait to see who else is going to invest.
创业公司在天使轮中越来越多地使用可转换债券的原因在于,它们能让交易更快完成。通过让创业公司更容易向不同投资者提供不同价格,可转换债券有助于打破那种所有投资者都在观望谁还会投资的僵局。
By far the biggest influence on investors' opinions of a startup is the opinion of other investors. There are very, very few who simply decide for themselves. Any startup founder can tell you the most common question they hear from investors is not about the founders or the product, but "who else is investing?"
到目前为止,对投资者关于初创公司看法影响最大的因素,是其他投资者的看法。极少有人能纯粹独立决策。任何创业公司的创始人都会告诉你,他们从投资者那里听到的最常见问题,不是关于创始人或产品,而是“还有谁在投资?”
That tends to produce deadlocks. Raising an old-fashioned fixed-size equity round can take weeks, because all the angels sit around waiting for the others to commit, like competitors in a bicycle sprint who deliberately ride slowly at the start so they can follow whoever breaks first.
这种情况往往会导致僵局。传统的固定规模股权融资可能需要数周时间,因为所有天使投资人都在观望等待其他人承诺,就像自行车冲刺赛中的竞争对手,在起步时故意慢骑,以便跟随率先发力的人。
Convertible notes let startups beat such deadlocks by rewarding investors willing to move first with lower (effective) valuations. Which they deserve because they're taking more risk. It's much safer to invest in a startup Ron Conway has already invested in; someone who comes after him should pay a higher price.
可转换债券通过给予愿意率先行动的投资者更低(有效)估值作为奖励,帮助创业公司打破这类僵局。他们理应获得这种奖励,因为他们承担了更多风险。投资于罗恩·康威已经投资的初创公司要安全得多;后来者应当支付更高的价格。
The reason convertible notes allow more flexibility in price is that valuation caps aren't actual valuations, and notes are cheap and easy to do. So you can do high-resolution fundraising: if you wanted you could have a separate note with a different cap for each investor.
可转换债券之所以能在价格上提供更大灵活性,是因为估值上限并非实际估值,而且票据制作成本低、操作简单。因此,你可以进行高分辨率融资:如果愿意,你可以为每个投资者设立一张带有不同上限的独立票据。
That cap need not simply rise monotonically. A startup could also give better deals to investors they expected to help them most. The point is simply that different investors, whether because of the help they offer or their willingness to commit, have different values for startups, and their terms should reflect that.
这个上限不必单调递增。创业公司也可以给那些预期会提供最大帮助的投资者更优惠的条件。要点很简单:不同投资者,无论是因其提供的帮助还是承诺意愿,对创业公司的价值都不同,因此他们的条款应反映这一点。
Different terms for different investors is clearly the way of the future. Markets always evolve toward higher resolution. You may not need to use convertible notes to do it. With sufficiently lightweight standardized equity terms (and some changes in investors' and lawyers' expectations about equity rounds) you might be able to do the same thing with equity instead of debt. Either would be fine with startups, so long as they can easily change their valuation.
对不同投资者给予不同条款,显然是未来的趋势。市场总是朝着更高分辨率演进。你或许不一定需要使用可转换债券。通过足够轻量的标准化股权条款(以及投资者和律师对股权融资预期的一些改变),你完全可以用股权而非债务来实现同样的效果。对创业公司来说,两种方式都可行,只要它们能轻松调整估值。
Deadlocks weren't the only problem with fixed-size equity rounds. Another was that startups had to decide in advance how much to raise. I think it's a mistake for a startup to fix upon a specific number. If investors are easily convinced, the startup should raise more now, and if investors are skeptical, the startup should take a smaller amount and use that to get the company to the point where it's more convincing.
僵局并不是固定规模股权融资的唯一问题。另一个问题是,创业公司必须提前决定筹集多少资金。我认为创业公司锁定一个具体数字是错误的。如果投资者容易被说服,创业公司现在就应该多筹一点;如果投资者存疑,创业公司就应该接受较小的金额,并用它来让公司发展到更具说服力的阶段。
It's just not reasonable to expect startups to pick an optimal round size in advance, because that depends on the reactions of investors, and those are impossible to predict.
期望创业公司提前选出最优融资规模是不合理的,因为这取决于投资者的反应,而投资者的反应是无法预测的。
Fixed-size, multi-investor angel rounds are such a bad idea for startups that one wonders why things were ever done that way. One possibility is that this custom reflects the way investors like to collude when they can get away with it. But I think the actual explanation is less sinister. I think angels (and their lawyers) organized rounds this way in unthinking imitation of VC series A rounds. In a series A, a fixed-size equity round with a lead makes sense, because there is usually just one big investor, who is unequivocally the lead. Fixed-size series A rounds already are high res. But the more investors you have in a round, the less sense it makes for everyone to get the same price.
固定规模、多投资者的天使轮对创业公司来说如此糟糕,以致于让人怀疑当初为何要这样做。一种可能是,这种习惯反映了投资者在可以得逞时喜欢串通的方式。但我认为实际解释没那么险恶。我认为天使投资人(以及他们的律师)在组织融资轮时,不假思索地模仿了VC的A轮融资。在A轮中,固定规模且有领投方的股权融资是合理的,因为通常只有一个大投资者,他就是明确的领投方。固定规模的A轮融资本身已经是高分辨率的。但是,一个融资轮中的投资者越多,所有人获得相同价格就越不合理。
The most interesting question here may be what high res fundraising will do to the world of investors. Bolder investors will now get rewarded with lower prices. But more important, in a hits-driven business, is that they'll be able to get into the deals they want. Whereas the "who else is investing?" type of investors will not only pay higher prices, but may not be able to get into the best deals at all.
这里最有趣的问题可能是,高分辨率融资将对投资者的世界产生什么影响。更大胆的投资者现在将获得更低价格的回报。但更重要的是,在这个追逐热点的行业中,他们将能够进入他们想要的投资交易。而那种“还有谁在投资?”类型的投资者,不仅将支付更高的价格,甚至可能完全无法进入最优质的投资交易。
Thanks to Immad Akhund, Sam Altman, John Bautista, Pete Koomen, Jessica Livingston, Dan Siroker, Harj Taggar, and Fred Wilson for reading drafts of this.
感谢 Immad Akhund、Sam Altman、John Bautista、Pete Koomen、Jessica Livingston、Dan Siroker、Harj Taggar 和 Fred Wilson 阅读本文的草稿。