保罗·格雷厄姆:从 YC 创业公司身上学到的教训
保罗·格雷厄姆反思了从 YC 所投资的创业公司身上学到的核心教训:多数创业公司的共性问题高度相似,但辅导无法自动化,必须通过一对一的 office hours 解决。创始人常意识不到真正的问题(例如把融资困难归咎于外部,而实际上是产品不够好),也常因创业的反直觉性而忽略建议。YC 的关键价值在于帮助创始人聚焦最重要的问题,以周为单位快速实验和纠偏,从而加速执行。此外,同辈创业者的聚集与互助是比合伙人建议更重要的收获,YC 有意设计成这样的创新集群。本文适用于创业者、YC 申请者以及对创业生态感兴趣的读者。

September 2022
I recently told applicants to Y Combinator that the best advice I could give for getting in, per word, was
Explain what you've learned from users.
That tests a lot of things: whether you're paying attention to users, how well you understand them, and even how much they need what you're making.
Afterward I asked myself the same question. What have I learned from YC's users, the startups we've funded?
The first thing that came to mind was that most startups have the same problems. No two have exactly the same problems, but it's surprising how much the problems remain the same, regardless of what they're making. Once you've advised 100 startups all doing different things, you rarely encounter problems you haven't seen before.
This fact is one of the things that makes YC work. But I didn't know it when we started YC. I only had a few data points: our own startup, and those started by friends. It was a surprise to me how often the same problems recur in different forms.

2022年9月
最近我告诉Y Combinator的申请者,如果按字数算,我能给出的最佳录取建议是:
解释你从用户那里学到了什么。
这考验了许多事情:你是否关注用户、你对他们的理解程度,乃至他们对你所做的事有多需要。
之后我问了自己同样的问题。我从YC的用户——我们资助的初创公司——那里学到了什么?
首先想到的是,大多数初创公司都面临相同的问题。没有两家公司的问题完全相同,但无论它们做什么,问题重复出现的程度令人惊讶。一旦你给100家做不同事情的初创公司提供了建议,你几乎不会再遇到前所未见的问题。
这个事实是YC成功的原因之一。但我在创办YC时并不知道这一点。我当时只有少数几个数据点:我们自己的初创公司,以及朋友创办的公司。同样的问题以不同形式反复出现,让我感到意外。
Many later stage investors might never realize this, because later stage investors might not advise 100 startups in their whole career, but a YC partner will get this much experience in the first year or two.
That's one advantage of funding large numbers of early stage companies rather than smaller numbers of later-stage ones. You get a lot of data. Not just because you're looking at more companies, but also because more goes wrong.
许多后期投资者可能从未意识到这一点,因为他们整个职业生涯可能都不会给100家初创公司提供建议,但YC合伙人在头一两年就能获得这么多经验。
这就是资助大量早期公司而非少量后期公司的一个优势。你能获得大量数据。不仅因为你看了更多公司,还因为出问题的情况更多。
But knowing (nearly) all the problems startups can encounter doesn't mean that advising them can be automated, or reduced to a formula. There's no substitute for individual office hours with a YC partner. Each startup is unique, which means they have to be advised by specific partners who know them well.
[1] This is why I've never liked it when people refer to YC as a "bootcamp." It's intense like a bootcamp, but the opposite in structure. Instead of everyone doing the same thing, they're each talking to YC partners to figure out what their specific startup needs.
We learned that the hard way, in the notorious "batch that broke YC" in the summer of 2012. Up till that point we treated the partners as a pool. When a startup requested office hours, they got the next available slot posted by any partner. That meant every partner had to know every startup. This worked fine up to 60 startups, but when the batch grew to 80, everything broke. The founders probably didn't realize anything was wrong, but the partners were confused and unhappy because halfway through the batch they still didn't know all the companies yet.
[2] When I say the summer 2012 batch was broken, I mean it felt to the partners that something was wrong. Things weren't yet so broken that the startups had a worse experience. In fact that batch did unusually well.
At first I was puzzled. How could things be fine at 60 startups and broken at 80? It was only a third more. Then I realized what had happened. We were using an O(n2) algorithm. So of course it blew up.
The solution we adopted was the classic one in these situations. We sharded the batch into smaller groups of startups, each overseen by a dedicated group of partners. That fixed the problem, and has worked fine ever since. But the batch that broke YC was a powerful demonstration of how individualized the process of advising startups has to be.
但了解初创公司可能遇到的(几乎)所有问题,并不意味着建议可以自动化或简化成公式。YC合伙人的个别辅导时间无可替代。每家初创公司都是独一无二的,这意味着必须由熟悉它们的特定合伙人提供建议。
[1] 这就是为什么我从不喜欢人们称YC为“训练营”。它像训练营一样紧张,但结构相反。不是每个人都做同样的事,而是每个人与YC合伙人交谈,找出他们特定初创公司的需求。
我们通过2012年夏天那个臭名昭著的“压垮YC的批次”艰难地学到了这一点。在那之前,我们把合伙人当作一个池子。当一家初创公司预约辅导时,他们会得到任何合伙人发布的下一可用时段。这意味着每个合伙人必须了解每家初创公司。这在上限60家时运行良好,但当批次增长到80家时,一切崩溃了。创始人可能没意识到问题,但合伙人感到困惑和不快,因为在批次进行到一半时,他们仍然不了解所有公司。
[2] 我说2012年夏季批次出了问题,是指合伙人感觉有不对劲的地方。情况还没有严重到让初创公司体验变差。事实上那个批次表现得异常出色。
起初我很困惑。60家时一切正常,80家怎么就崩溃了?只增加了三分之一。然后我意识到发生了什么。我们用的是O(n2)算法,所以当然会爆炸。
我们采用的解决方案是这种情况下的经典做法。我们把批次分成更小的初创公司组,每组由一组专属合伙人监督。这解决了问题,此后一直运作良好。但压垮YC的批次有力地证明了指导初创公司的过程必须个性化。
Another related surprise is how bad founders can be at realizing what their problems are. Founders will sometimes come in to talk about some problem, and we'll discover another much bigger one in the course of the conversation. For example (and this case is all too common), founders will come in to talk about the difficulties they're having raising money, and after digging into their situation, it turns out the reason is that the company is doing badly, and investors can tell. Or founders will come in worried that they still haven't cracked the problem of user acquisition, and the reason turns out to be that their product isn't good enough. There have been times when I've asked "Would you use this yourself, if you hadn't built it?" and the founders, on thinking about it, said "No." Well, there's the reason you're having trouble getting users.
[3] This situation reminds me of the research showing that people are much better at answering questions than they are at judging how accurate their answers are. The two phenomena feel very similar.
Often founders know what their problems are, but not their relative importance.
They'll come in to talk about three problems they're worrying about. One is of moderate importance, one doesn't matter at all, and one will kill the company if it isn't addressed immediately. It's like watching one of those horror movies where the heroine is deeply upset that her boyfriend cheated on her, and only mildly curious about the door that's mysteriously ajar. You want to say: never mind about your boyfriend, think about that door! Fortunately in office hours you can. So while startups still die with some regularity, it's rarely because they wandered into a room containing a murderer. The YC partners can warn them where the murderers are.
另一个相关的意外是,创始人在意识到自己的问题方面有多糟糕。有时创始人会来谈论某个问题,而我们会在谈话过程中发现另一个更大的问题。例如(这种情况太常见了),创始人来谈论他们融资的困难,但深入情况后,发现原因是公司表现不佳,投资者能看出来。或者创始人来担心他们还没有解决用户获取的问题,结果发现原因是产品不够好。有好几次我问:“如果这不是你建的,你自己会用吗?”创始人想了想,说“不会”。好吧,这就是获取用户困难的原因。
[3] 这种情况让我想起一项研究,人们回答问题比判断答案准确程度做得好得多。这两种现象感觉非常相似。
通常创始人知道自己的问题是什么,但不知道它们的相对重要性。
他们会来谈论他们担心的三个问题。一个是中等重要,一个根本不重要,还有一个如果不立即处理就会毁掉公司。这就像看恐怖电影,女主角对男友出轨深感不安,却只对神秘半开的门有一点好奇。你想说:别管你男友了,想想那扇门!幸运的是,在辅导时间你可以这么做。所以虽然初创公司仍会规律地死亡,但很少是因为他们误入有凶手的房间。YC合伙人可以警告他们凶手在哪里。
Not that founders listen. That was another big surprise: how often founders don't listen to us. A couple weeks ago I talked to a partner who had been working for YC for a couple batches and was starting to see the pattern. "They come back a year later," she said, "and say 'We wish we'd listened to you.'"
It took me a long time to figure out why founders don't listen. At first I thought it was mere stubbornness. That's part of the reason, but another and probably more important reason is that so much about startups is counterintuitive. And when you tell someone something counterintuitive, what it sounds to them is wrong. So the reason founders don't listen to us is that they don't believe us. At least not till experience teaches them otherwise.
[4] The Airbnbs were particularly good at listening — partly because they were flexible and disciplined, but also because they'd had such a rough time during the preceding year. They were ready to listen.
然而创始人并不听。这是另一个大意外:创始人经常不听我们的。几周前我和一位合伙人聊过,她已经在YC工作了几批,开始看到规律。“他们一年后回来,”她说,“说‘真希望当时听了你的。’”
我花了很长时间才弄明白创始人为什么不听。起初我以为只是固执。这是部分原因,但另一个可能更重要的原因是初创公司有很多反直觉的地方。当你告诉某人反直觉的事情时,他们听上去是错误的。所以创始人不听我们的原因是不相信我们。至少要到经验教会他们才会相信。
[4] Airbnb的创始人尤其善于倾听——部分因为他们灵活又有纪律,也因为他们前一年经历了太多困难。他们已经准备好倾听。
The reason startups are so counterintuitive is that they're so different from most people's other experiences. No one knows what it's like except those who've done it. Which is why YC partners should usually have been founders themselves. But strangely enough, the counterintuitiveness of startups turns out to be another of the things that make YC work. If it weren't counterintuitive, founders wouldn't need our advice about how to do it.
Focus is doubly important for early stage startups, because not only do they have a hundred different problems, they don't have anyone to work on them except the founders. If the founders focus on things that don't matter, there's no one focusing on the things that do. So the essence of what happens at YC is to figure out which problems matter most, then cook up ideas for solving them — ideally at a resolution of a week or less — and then try those ideas and measure how well they worked. The focus is on action, with measurable, near-term results.
初创公司如此反直觉的原因,是它们与大多数人其他经历截然不同。除了亲身经历过的人,没人知道是什么样子。这就是为什么YC合伙人通常自己应该是创始人。但奇怪的是,初创公司的反直觉性恰恰也是让YC有用的事情之一。如果它不反直觉,创始人就不需要我们告诉他们怎么做了。
聚焦对早期初创公司有双重重要性,因为不仅有一百个不同的问题,而且只有创始人自己来解决。如果创始人关注不重要的事情,就没有人关注重要的事情。所以YC的核心是找出哪些问题最重要,然后想出解决办法——理想情况下以一周或更短的周期——然后尝试这些想法,衡量效果。重点是行动,关注可衡量的近期结果。
This doesn't imply that founders should rush forward regardless of the consequences. If you correct course at a high enough frequency, you can be simultaneously decisive at a micro scale and tentative at a macro scale. The result is a somewhat winding path, but executed very rapidly, like the path a running back takes downfield. And in practice there's less backtracking than you might expect. Founders usually guess right about which direction to run in, especially if they have someone experienced like a YC partner to bounce their hypotheses off. And when they guess wrong, they notice fast, because they'll talk about the results at office hours the next week.
[5] The optimal unit of decisiveness depends on how long it takes to get results, and that depends on the type of problem you're solving. When you're negotiating with investors, it could be a couple days, whereas if you're building hardware it could be months.
A small improvement in navigational ability can make you a lot faster, because it has a double effect: the path is shorter, and you can travel faster along it when you're more certain it's the right one. That's where a lot of YC's value lies, in helping founders get an extra increment of focus that lets them move faster. And since moving fast is the essence of a startup, YC in effect makes startups more startup-like.
Speed defines startups. Focus enables speed. YC improves focus.
这并不意味着创始人应该不顾后果地冲。如果你以足够高的频率修正航向,你就可以在微观尺度上果断,在宏观尺度上试探。结果是一条有些曲折但执行极快的路径,就像橄榄球跑卫带球前进的路线。实际上,回溯比你想的要少。创始人通常能猜对方向,尤其是有YC合伙人这样有经验的人可以验证假设。当他们猜错时,也能很快发现,因为下周的辅导时间就会讨论结果。
[5] 最优的决策单元取决于获得结果需要多长时间,而这取决于你要解决的问题类型。与投资者谈判,可能是几天;如果是造硬件,则可能几个月。
导航能力的小幅提升可以让你快得多,因为它有双重效果:路径更短,而且当你更确定这是正确路径时,跑得更快。YC的很大价值就在这里——帮助创始人获得额外的聚焦,让他们移动更快。既然快速移动是初创公司的本质,YC实际上让初创公司更具初创公司特色。
速度定义初创公司。聚焦带来速度。YC提升聚焦。
Why are founders uncertain about what to do? Partly because startups almost by definition are doing something new, which means no one knows how to do it yet, or in most cases even what "it" is. Partly because startups are so counterintuitive generally. And partly because many founders, especially young and ambitious ones, have been trained to win the wrong way. That took me years to figure out. The educational system in most countries trains you to win by hacking the test instead of actually doing whatever it's supposed to measure. But that stops working when you start a startup. So part of what YC does is to retrain founders to stop trying to hack the test. (It takes a surprisingly long time. A year in, you still see them reverting to their old habits.)
YC is not simply more experienced founders passing on their knowledge. It's more like specialization than apprenticeship. The knowledge of the YC partners and the founders have different shapes: It wouldn't be worthwhile for a founder to acquire the encyclopedic knowledge of startup problems that a YC partner has, just as it wouldn't be worthwhile for a YC partner to acquire the depth of domain knowledge that a founder has. That's why it can still be valuable for an experienced founder to do YC, just as it can still be valuable for an experienced athlete to have a coach.
为什么创始人会对该做什么感到不确定?部分因为初创公司几乎定义上就在做新的事情,没人知道怎么做,甚至很多时候连“它”是什么都不知道。部分因为初创公司整体上非常反直觉。还有一部分因为许多创始人,尤其是年轻有野心的,被训练用错误的方式获胜。这一点我花了很多年才明白。大多数国家的教育系统训练你通过搞掂测试来获胜,而不是真正去做测试原本要衡量的事情。但创业时这一套就不管用了。所以YC的一部分工作就是重新训练创始人,让他们不再试图搞定测试。(这需要很长时间,一年后你还会看到他们恢复旧习惯。)
YC不仅仅是更有经验的创始人传递知识。它更像是专业化而非学徒制。YC合伙人和创始人的知识形状不同:创始人去获取YC合伙人那种百科全书式的初创问题知识并不划算,就像YC合伙人不值得去获取创始人那种深度领域知识一样。这就是为什么经验丰富的创始人也可能从YC获益,就像经验丰富的运动员仍然需要教练一样。
The other big thing YC gives founders is colleagues, and this may be even more important than the advice of partners. If you look at history, great work clusters around certain places and institutions: Florence in the late 15th century, the University of Göttingen in the late 19th, The New Yorker under Ross, Bell Labs, Xerox PARC. However good you are, good colleagues make you better. Indeed, very ambitious people probably need colleagues more than anyone else, because they're so starved for them in everyday life.
Whether or not YC manages one day to be listed alongside those famous clusters, it won't be for lack of trying. We were very aware of this historical phenomenon and deliberately designed YC to be one. By this point it's not bragging to say that it's the biggest cluster of great startup founders. Even people trying to attack YC concede that.
Colleagues and startup founders are two of the most powerful forces in the world, so you'd expect it to have a big effect to combine them. Before YC, to the extent people thought about the question at all, most assumed they couldn't be combined — that loneliness was the price of independence. That was how it felt to us when we started our own startup in Boston in the 1990s. We had a handful of older people we could go to for advice (of varying quality), but no peers. There was no one we could commiserate with about the misbehavior of investors, or speculate with about the future of technology. I often tell founders to make something they themselves want, and YC is certainly that: it was designed to be exactly what we wanted when we were starting a startup.
One thing we wanted was to be able to get seed funding without having to make the rounds of random rich people. That has become a commodity now, at least in the US. But great colleagues can never become a commodity, because the fact that they cluster in some places means they're proportionally absent from the rest.
YC给创始人的另一大财富是同行,这可能比合伙人的建议更重要。回顾历史,伟大的工作往往集中在某些地方或机构:15世纪末的佛罗伦萨、19世纪末的哥廷根大学、罗斯时期的《纽约客》、贝尔实验室、施乐帕克。无论你多优秀,好的同行会让你更出色。事实上,真正有野心的人可能比任何人都更需要同行,因为日常生活中他们太缺乏同类了。
无论YC是否有一天能与那些著名集群并列,至少我们努力过。我们很清楚这个历史现象,并有意把YC设计成这样一个集群。到现在,说它是伟大创始人最大的集群并不夸张。即使攻击YC的人也承认这一点。
同行和创始人都是世界上最强大的力量之一,所以把它们结合起来应该会产生巨大影响。在YC之前,人们即使考虑过这个问题,大多也认为二者不可兼得——孤独是独立的代价。这是我们在1990年代波士顿创业时的感受。我们有几个年长的人可以请教(建议质量参差不齐),但没有同龄人。没有可以一起抱怨投资人行为、或是探讨技术未来的人。我经常告诉创始人做自己需要的东西,而YC正是如此:它被设计成我们在创业时想要的样子。
我们想要的一件事情是能够获得种子轮融资,而不用去拜访各种随机有钱人。现在这已经变成商品了,至少在美国如此。但优秀的同行永远不会变成商品,因为他们在某些地方聚集,就意味着在其他地方按比例缺席。
Something magical happens where they do cluster though. The energy in the room at a YC dinner is like nothing else I've experienced. We would have been happy just to have one or two other startups to talk to. When you have a whole roomful it's another thing entirely.
YC founders aren't just inspired by one another. They also help one another. That's the happiest thing I've learned about startup founders: how generous they can be in helping one another. We noticed this in the first batch and consciously designed YC to magnify it. The result is something far more intense than, say, a university. Between the partners, the alumni, and their batchmates, founders are surrounded by people who want to help them, and can.
但在他们聚集的地方,确实会发生神奇的事情。YC晚宴上的能量是我从未体验过的。我们本来只是期望能有一两家其他初创公司可以聊聊,但当你拥有满屋子的同行时,完全是另一回事。
YC的创始人不仅相互启发,还互相帮助。这是我从创业者身上学到的最令人欣慰的事:他们可以如此慷慨地相互帮助。我们在第一批就注意到了这一点,并有意设计YC来放大它。结果是比大学强得多的氛围。在合伙人、校友和同批创始人的包围中,创始人身边都是愿意并且能够帮助他们的人。