Coronavirus and Credibility
Paul Graham argues that the coronavirus pandemic serves as an unusually powerful and unequivocal test of credibility. Unlike vague topics where false predictions go unpunished, epidemics rapidly falsify claims with hard data. Drawing on Warren Buffett's analogy, he notes how the event exposes those who 'swim naked'—public figures who confidently speak on matters they don't understand. The article urges readers to remember the results as the most accurate credibility test we're likely to have. Relevant for those interested in public trust and cognitive biases.
April 2020I recently saw a
video of TV journalists and politicians confidently saying that the coronavirus would be no worse than the flu. What struck me about it was not just how mistaken they seemed, but how daring. How could they feel safe saying such things?
2020年4月。我最近看到一个视频，里面的电视记者和政客们自信地宣称新冠病毒最多也就是流感级别。让我震惊的不只是他们看起来有多么错误，更是他们的胆量。他们怎么敢如此言之凿凿？
The answer, I realized, is that they didn't think they could get caught. They didn't realize there was any danger in making false predictions. These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said.
An epidemic is different. It falsifies your predictions rapidly and unequivocally.
But epidemics are rare enough that these people clearly didn't realize this was even a possibility. Instead they just continued to use their ordinary m.o., which, as the epidemic has made clear, is to talk confidently about things they don't understand.
我意识到，答案是他们不觉得自己会被抓住。他们没意识到虚假预测有什么风险。这些人一直在做虚假预测，却总能逃脱，因为他们预测的事情要么结果模糊不清，能靠诡辩蒙混过关，要么发生在遥远的未来，几乎没人记得他们说过什么。
流行病则不同。它会迅速且明确地证伪你的预测。
但流行病足够罕见，这些人显然没意识到这种可能性。相反，他们继续沿用自己惯常的做法，而流行病已经清楚地表明，那就是对自己不懂的事情说得头头是道。
An event like this is thus a uniquely powerful way of taking people's measure. As Warren Buffett said, "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who's been swimming naked." And the tide has just gone out like never before.
这样的时刻因此成了一种衡量人的独特而强大的方式。正如沃伦·巴菲特所说：“只有当潮水退去，你才知道谁在裸泳。”而这次潮水前所未有地退去了。
Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have. I hope.
既然我们已经看到了结果，就让我们记住所见所闻吧，因为这可能是我们所能拥有的最准确的可信度测试。希望如此。