Tablets: The Next Wave of Ephemeralization
In this 2010 essay, Paul Graham argues that tablets, like the iPad, will replace many specialized physical devices by turning their functions into software apps. He introduces Buckminster Fuller's concept of ephemeralization—the trend of replacing physical machinery with information. Examples include GPS devices, music players, keys, and even scales. He advises startups to look for objects that can be made obsolete by a tablet app. He also expresses concern about Apple's potential dominance and suggests that competitors should become better platforms for ephemeralization.
December 2010I was thinking recently how inconvenient it was not to have a general term for iPhones, iPads, and the corresponding things running Android. The closest to a general term seems to be "mobile devices," but that (a) applies to any mobile phone, and (b) doesn't really capture what's distinctive about the iPad. After a few seconds it struck me that what we'll end up calling these things is tablets. The only reason we even consider calling them "mobile devices" is that the iPhone preceded the iPad. If the iPad had come first, we wouldn't think of the iPhone as a phone; we'd think of it as a tablet small enough to hold up to your ear.
2010年12月。我最近在想，没有一个通用术语来指代iPhone、iPad以及运行Android的同类设备是多么不便。最接近的通用术语似乎是“移动设备”，但（a）它适用于任何移动电话，（b）并没有真正抓住iPad的独特之处。片刻之后我意识到，我们最终会称这些设备为平板电脑。我们之所以考虑称它们为“移动设备”，唯一的原因是iPhone先于iPad出现。如果iPad先出现，我们就不会把iPhone当作手机；我们会认为它是一款小到可以举到耳边使用的平板电脑。
The iPhone isn't so much a phone as a replacement for a phone. That's an important distinction, because it's an early instance of what will become a common pattern. Many if not most of the special-purpose objects around us are going to be replaced by apps running on tablets. This is already clear in cases like GPSes, music players, and cameras. But I think it will surprise people how many things are going to get replaced. We funded one startup that's replacing keys. The fact that you can change font sizes easily means the iPad effectively replaces reading glasses. I wouldn't be surprised if by playing some clever tricks with the accelerometer you could even replace the bathroom scale. The advantages of doing things in software on a single device are so great that everything that can get turned into software will. So for the next couple years, a good recipe for startups will be to look around you for things that people haven't realized yet can be made unnecessary by a tablet app.
与其说iPhone是一部电话，不如说它是电话的替代品。这是一个重要的区别，因为它将成为一种普遍模式的早期实例。我们周围的专用物品，即使不是大部分，也有很多将被平板电脑上的应用所取代。这在GPS、音乐播放器和相机等案例中已经很明显。但我认为，将被取代的东西数量之多会让人惊讶。我们资助了一家正在取代钥匙的初创公司。你可以轻松更改字体大小这一事实意味着iPad实际上取代了老花镜。如果通过加速度计玩一些巧妙的把戏，你甚至能取代浴室秤，我也不会感到惊讶。在单一设备上用软件完成事情的优点如此巨大，以至于一切可以转化为软件的东西都会转化。因此，未来几年，初创公司的一个好方法就是环顾四周，寻找那些人们尚未意识到可以被平板应用变得多余的物品。
In 1938 Buckminster Fuller coined the term ephemeralization to describe the increasing tendency of physical machinery to be replaced by what we would now call software. The reason tablets are going to take over the world is not (just) that Steve Jobs and Co are industrial design wizards, but because they have this force behind them. The iPhone and the iPad have effectively drilled a hole that will allow ephemeralization to flow into a lot of new areas. No one who has studied the history of technology would want to underestimate the power of that force.
1938年，巴克敏斯特·富勒创造了“去物质化”一词，描述物理机器被我们现在所说的软件取代的日益增长的趋势。平板电脑将主宰世界的原因，不仅仅是史蒂夫·乔布斯及其团队是工业设计奇才，还因为他们背后有这股力量。iPhone和iPad已经有效地钻开了一个洞，使去物质化得以流入许多新领域。任何研究过技术史的人都不会低估这股力量的力量。
I worry about the power Apple could have with this force behind them. I don't want to see another era of client monoculture like the Microsoft one in the 80s and 90s. But if ephemeralization is one of the main forces driving the spread of tablets, that suggests a way to compete with Apple: be a better platform for it. It has turned out to be a great thing that Apple tablets have accelerometers in them. Developers have used the accelerometer in ways Apple could never have imagined. That's the nature of platforms. The more versatile the tool, the less you can predict how people will use it. So tablet makers should be thinking: what else can we put in there? Not merely hardware, but software too. What else can we give developers access to? Give hackers an inch and they'll take you a mile.
我担心苹果在这股力量背后可能拥有的力量。我不想看到另一个像80年代和90年代微软那样的客户端单一垄断时代。但如果去物质化是推动平板电脑普及的主要力量之一，那就暗示了一种与苹果竞争的方式：为其提供更好的平台。事实证明，苹果平板内置加速度计是一件很棒的事。开发者以苹果从未想象过的方式使用了加速度计。这就是平台的本质。工具越通用，你就越难以预测人们将如何使用它。因此，平板电脑制造商应该思考：我们还能往里面放些什么？不仅仅是硬件，还有软件。我们还能给开发者提供什么访问权限？给黑客一寸，他们就会带你一英里。
Thanks to Sam Altman, Paul Buchheit, Jessica Livingston, and Robert Morris for reading drafts of this.
感谢山姆·奥尔特曼、保罗·布赫海特、杰西卡·利文斯顿和罗伯特·莫里斯审阅本文的草稿。