The Hardest Lessons for Startups to Learn
Paul Graham's classic talk distills seven counterintuitive lessons for startup founders: release early, keep pumping out features, make users happy, fear the right things, commitment is a self-fulfilling prophecy, there is always room, and don't get your hopes up. He argues that the true purpose of a startup is not to get rich but to work faster, compressing the drudgery of making a living to focus on meaningful work. Backed by concrete examples (Wufoo, Reddit, Microsoft, Apple) and metrics, the essay emphasizes flexibility, user obsession, and determination. While not directly about AI or systems engineering, it offers timeless wisdom for any builder.
April 2006(This essay is derived from a talk at the 2006 Startup School.)
The startups we've funded so far are pretty quick, but they seem quicker to learn some lessons than others. I think it's because some things about startups are kind of counterintuitive.
We've now invested in enough companies that I've learned a trick for determining which points are the counterintuitive ones: they're the ones I have to keep repeating.
So I'm going to number these points, and maybe with future startups I'll be able to pull off a form of Huffman coding. I'll make them all read this, and then instead of nagging them in detail, I'll just be able to say: number four!
2006年4月(本文源自2006年创业学校的一场演讲。)
到目前为止,我们投资的初创公司都很聪明,但有些教训似乎比其他教训学得更快。我想这是因为创业的某些事情有点反直觉。
我们现在已经投资了足够多的公司,我学会了判断哪些点是反直觉的方法:就是那些我不得不一再重复的。
所以我将把这些点编号,也许未来面对新的初创公司时,我能使用一种哈夫曼编码式的沟通方式。让他们全都读这篇文章,然后我就不必啰嗦细节,只需说:第四条!
- Release Early.
The thing I probably repeat most is this recipe for a startup: get a version 1 out fast, then improve it based on users' reactions.
By "release early" I don't mean you should release something full of bugs, but that you should release something minimal. Users hate bugs, but they don't seem to mind a minimal version 1, if there's more coming soon.
There are several reasons it pays to get version 1 done fast. One is that this is simply the right way to write software, whether for a startup or not. I've been repeating that since 1993, and I haven't seen much since to contradict it. I've seen a lot of startups die because they were too slow to release stuff, and none because they were too quick.
[1]One of the things that will surprise you if you build something popular is that you won't know your users. Reddit now has almost half a million unique visitors a month. Who are all those people? They have no idea. No web startup does. And since you don't know your users, it's dangerous to guess what they'll like. Better to release something and let them tell you.
Wufoo took this to heart and released their form-builder before the underlying database. You can't even drive the thing yet, but 83,000 people came to sit in the driver's seat and hold the steering wheel. And Wufoo got valuable feedback from it: Linux users complained they used too much Flash, so they rewrote their software not to. If they'd waited to release everything at once, they wouldn't have discovered this problem till it was more deeply wired in.
Even if you had no users, it would still be important to release quickly, because for a startup the initial release acts as a shakedown cruise. If anything major is broken-- if the idea's no good, for example, or the founders hate one another-- the stress of getting that first version out will expose it. And if you have such problems you want to find them early.
Perhaps the most important reason to release early, though, is that it makes you work harder. When you're working on something that isn't released, problems are intriguing. In something that's out there, problems are alarming. There is a lot more urgency once you release. And I think that's precisely why people put it off. They know they'll have to work a lot harder once they do.
- 尽早发布。
我可能重复最多的创业秘诀是:快速推出第一个版本,然后根据用户反馈改进。
我所说的“尽早发布”不是指发布充满bug的产品,而是发布一个最小功能版本。用户讨厌bug,但如果后续很快有更新,他们似乎不介意最小化的第一个版本。
快速完成第一个版本有几个好处。首先,这本身就是正确的软件开发方式,无论是否创业。我从1993年就开始强调这一点,至今没看到什么反例。我看到很多初创公司因为发布太慢而死亡,但从来没有因为太快而失败的。
[1]如果你打造了一个受欢迎的产品,会让你惊讶的一点是:你根本不了解你的用户。Reddit每月有近50万独立访客。那些人是谁?他们完全不知道。没有哪家网络创业公司知道。既然你不了解用户,猜测他们的喜好是很危险的。不如先发布产品,让他们告诉你。
Wufoo深谙此道,他们在底层数据库尚未完成时就发布了表单构建器。那时你甚至还不能驱动它,但已经有83,000人来坐进驾驶座、握着方向盘。Wufoo从中获得了宝贵反馈:Linux用户抱怨他们用了太多Flash,于是他们重写了软件以避免。如果等到一次性发布所有功能,这个问题就会深深嵌入系统才被发现。
即使你没有任何用户,快速发布依然很重要,因为对初创公司来说,首次发布就像一次试航。如果有什么重大问题——比如想法不行,或者联合创始人互相憎恨——推出第一版的压力会暴露它。而且如果有这些问题,你应该尽早发现它们。
然而,尽早发布最重要的原因可能是:它会迫使你更努力地工作。当你开发一个尚未发布的东西时,问题显得有趣;而当它已经上线,问题就变得令人警觉。一旦发布,紧迫感会大大增加。我觉得这正是人们拖延发布的原因——他们知道一旦发布,就必须更加拼命。
- Keep Pumping Out Features.
Of course, "release early" has a second component, without which it would be bad advice. If you're going to start with something that doesn't do much, you better improve it fast.
What I find myself repeating is "pump out features." And this rule isn't just for the initial stages. This is something all startups should do for as long as they want to be considered startups.
I don't mean, of course, that you should make your application ever more complex. By "feature" I mean one unit of hacking-- one quantum of making users' lives better.
As with exercise, improvements beget improvements. If you run every day, you'll probably feel like running tomorrow. But if you skip running for a couple weeks, it will be an effort to drag yourself out. So it is with hacking: the more ideas you implement, the more ideas you'll have. You should make your system better at least in some small way every day or two.
This is not just a good way to get development done; it is also a form of marketing. Users love a site that's constantly improving. In fact, users expect a site to improve. Imagine if you visited a site that seemed very good, and then returned two months later and not one thing had changed. Wouldn't it start to seem lame?
[3]They'll like you even better when you improve in response to their comments, because customers are used to companies ignoring them. If you're the rare exception-- a company that actually listens-- you'll generate fanatical loyalty. You won't need to advertise, because your users will do it for you.
This seems obvious too, so why do I have to keep repeating it? I think the problem here is that people get used to how things are. Once a product gets past the stage where it has glaring flaws, you start to get used to it, and gradually whatever features it happens to have become its identity. For example, I doubt many people at Yahoo (or Google for that matter) realized how much better web mail could be till Paul Buchheit showed them.
I think the solution is to assume that anything you've made is far short of what it could be. Force yourself, as a sort of intellectual exercise, to keep thinking of improvements. Ok, sure, what you have is perfect. But if you had to change something, what would it be?
If your product seems finished, there are two possible explanations: (a) it is finished, or (b) you lack imagination. Experience suggests (b) is a thousand times more likely.
- 持续输出功能。
当然,“尽早发布”还有第二个组成部分,否则它就是个糟糕的建议。如果你从一个功能很少的东西开始,就必须快速改进它。
我自己重复的是“输出功能”。而且这条规则不仅仅适用于初始阶段,只要你想被视为一家初创公司,就应该一直这么做。
当然,我并不是说你要让应用变得越来越复杂。我说的“功能”是指一个黑客单元——一个改善用户生活的量子。
就像锻炼一样,改进会催生更多改进。如果你每天跑步,很可能明天还想跑。但如果停跑几周,再迈出家门就会很费力。黑客行为也是如此:你实现的想法越多,就会产生更多想法。你应该每隔一两天就在某些小方面改进你的系统。
这不仅是完成开发的好方法,也是一种营销。用户喜欢不断改进的网站。事实上,用户期望网站不断进步。想象一下,如果你访问了一个看起来很棒的网站,两个月后回来发现一切都没变,是不是会觉得它很逊?
[3]当你根据他们的评论进行改进时,他们会更喜欢你,因为客户已经习惯了被公司忽视。如果你是个罕见的例外——一家真正倾听的公司——你会赢得狂热的忠诚。你不需要广告,因为用户会为你宣传。
这似乎也很明显,那为什么我还要一再重复?我认为问题在于人们会习惯现状。当一个产品度过了有明显缺陷的阶段,你就会开始习惯它,逐渐地,它所拥有的任何功能都变成了它的身份。例如,我怀疑在雅虎(或谷歌)有多少人意识到网络邮件可以改进得更好,直到Paul Buchheit向他们展示。
我认为解决方案是假设你做的任何东西都远未达到它可能达到的水平。作为一种智力练习,强迫自己不断思考改进。好吧,当然,你现在的东西是完美的。但如果必须改变一些东西,那会是什么?
如果你的产品似乎已经完成,有两种可能的解释:(a) 它确实完成了,或者 (b) 你缺乏想象力。经验表明,(b) 的可能性要大一千倍。
- Make Users Happy.
Improving constantly is an instance of a more general rule: make users happy. One thing all startups have in common is that they can't force anyone to do anything. They can't force anyone to use their software, and they can't force anyone to do deals with them. A startup has to sing for its supper. That's why the successful ones make great things. They have to, or die.
When you're running a startup you feel like a little bit of debris blown about by powerful winds. The most powerful wind is users. They can either catch you and loft you up into the sky, as they did with Google, or leave you flat on the pavement, as they do with most startups. Users are a fickle wind, but more powerful than any other. If they take you up, no competitor can keep you down.
As a little piece of debris, the rational thing for you to do is not to lie flat, but to curl yourself into a shape the wind will catch.
I like the wind metaphor because it reminds you how impersonal the stream of traffic is. The vast majority of people who visit your site will be casual visitors. It's them you have to design your site for. The people who really care will find what they want by themselves.
The median visitor will arrive with their finger poised on the Back button. Think about your own experience: most links you follow lead to something lame. Anyone who has used the web for more than a couple weeks has been trained to click on Back after following a link. So your site has to say "Wait! Don't click on Back. This site isn't lame. Look at this, for example."
There are two things you have to do to make people pause. The most important is to explain, as concisely as possible, what the hell your site is about. How often have you visited a site that seemed to assume you already knew what they did? For example, the corporate site that says the company makes enterprise content management solutions for business that enable organizations to unify people, content and processes to minimize business risk, accelerate time-to-value and sustain lower total cost of ownership.
An established company may get away with such an opaque description, but no startup can. A startup should be able to explain in one or two sentences exactly what it does. [4] And not just to users. You need this for everyone: investors, acquirers, partners, reporters, potential employees, and even current employees. You probably shouldn't even start a company to do something that can't be described compellingly in one or two sentences.The other thing I repeat is to give people everything you've got, right away. If you have something impressive, try to put it on the front page, because that's the only one most visitors will see. Though indeed there's a paradox here: the more you push the good stuff toward the front, the more likely visitors are to explore further.
[5]In the best case these two suggestions get combined: you tell visitors what your site is about by showing them. One of the standard pieces of advice in fiction writing is "show, don't tell." Don't say that a character's angry; have him grind his teeth, or break his pencil in half. Nothing will explain what your site does so well as using it.
The industry term here is "conversion." The job of your site is to convert casual visitors into users-- whatever your definition of a user is. You can measure this in your growth rate. Either your site is catching on, or it isn't, and you must know which. If you have decent growth, you'll win in the end, no matter how obscure you are now. And if you don't, you need to fix something.
- 让用户满意。
持续改进是一个更通用规则的具体体现:让用户开心。所有初创公司的共同点是,它们无法强迫任何人做任何事。它们无法强迫任何人使用它们的软件,也无法强迫任何人与其交易。一家初创公司必须靠表演来换取晚餐。这正是成功者能创造出伟大产品的原因——他们必须这样做,否则就会死亡。
当你经营一家初创公司时,你会感觉自己像被强风刮起的碎屑。最强的风就是用户。他们可以将你托起升上天空,就像他们对谷歌做的那样;也可以把你丢弃在人行道上,就像他们对大多数初创公司做的那样。用户是变幻莫测的风,但比任何其他力量都强大。如果他们把你托起,没有竞争对手能把你拉下来。
作为一小片碎屑,你最理性的做法不是躺平,而是把自己卷成一个能被风抓住的形状。
我喜欢这个风的比喻,因为它提醒你流量的非人格性。访问你网站的绝大多数人都是普通访客。你必须为他们设计网站。真正关心的人会自己找到他们想要的。
普通访客到达时,手指已经悬停在“返回”按钮上。想想你自己的经历:你点击的大部分链接都导向垃圾内容。任何一个使用网络超过几周的人都被训练成点击链接后立即点返回。所以你的网站必须说:“等等!别点返回。这个网站不垃圾。看看这个,比如……”
你需要做两件事让人们停下来。最重要的是尽可能简洁地解释你的网站到底是干什么的。你多少次访问过一个似乎假设你已经知道他们是做什么的网站?例如,某个企业网站说“公司为业务提供企业内容管理解决方案,使组织能够统一人员、内容和流程,以最小化业务风险、加速实现价值并维持较低总拥有成本”。
成熟的公司或许可以用这种含糊的描述蒙混过关,但初创公司不能。一家初创公司应该能用一两句话准确描述它做什么。 [4] 而且不只是面向用户。你需要对所有人说清楚:投资者、收购方、合作伙伴、记者、潜在员工,甚至现有员工。你甚至可能不应该创办一家做一两句话无法有说服力地描述的事情的公司。我重复的另一件事是:立即把你所有的一切给用户。如果你有什么令人印象深刻的东西,尽量把它放在首页,因为那是大多数访客唯一会看的页面。不过这里有一个悖论:你把好东西推得越靠前,访客就越可能进一步探索。
[5]在最佳情况下,这两条建议可以结合:通过展示来告诉访客你的网站是做什么的。小说写作的标准建议之一是“展示,不要告诉”。不要说你生气了,而是让他磨牙或折断铅笔。没有什么比实际使用更能解释你的网站了。
这里的行业术语是“转化”。你网站的工作是将普通访客转化为用户——无论你对用户的定义是什么。你可以通过增长率来衡量这一点。要么你的网站正在流行,要么没有,你必须知道是哪种情况。如果你有可观的增长,最终你会赢,无论现在多么小众。如果没有,你就需要修正一些东西。
- Fear the Right Things.
Another thing I find myself saying a lot is "don't worry." Actually, it's more often "don't worry about this; worry about that instead." Startups are right to be paranoid, but they sometimes fear the wrong things.
Most visible disasters are not so alarming as they seem. Disasters are normal in a startup: a founder quits, you discover a patent that covers what you're doing, your servers keep crashing, you run into an insoluble technical problem, you have to change your name, a deal falls through-- these are all par for the course. They won't kill you unless you let them.
Nor will most competitors. A lot of startups worry "what if Google builds something like us?" Actually big companies are not the ones you have to worry about-- not even Google. The people at Google are smart, but no smarter than you; they're not as motivated, because Google is not going to go out of business if this one product fails; and even at Google they have a lot of bureaucracy to slow them down.
What you should fear, as a startup, is not the established players, but other startups you don't know exist yet. They're way more dangerous than Google because, like you, they're cornered animals.
Looking just at existing competitors can give you a false sense of security. You should compete against what someone else could be doing, not just what you can see people doing. A corollary is that you shouldn't relax just because you have no visible competitors yet. No matter what your idea, there's someone else out there working on the same thing.
That's the downside of it being easier to start a startup: more people are doing it. But I disagree with Caterina Fake when she says that makes this a bad time to start a startup. More people are starting startups, but not as many more as could. Most college graduates still think they have to get a job. The average person can't ignore something that's been beaten into their head since they were three just because serving web pages recently got a lot cheaper.
And in any case, competitors are not the biggest threat. Way more startups hose themselves than get crushed by competitors. There are a lot of ways to do it, but the three main ones are internal disputes, inertia, and ignoring users. Each is, by itself, enough to kill you. But if I had to pick the worst, it would be ignoring users. If you want a recipe for a startup that's going to die, here it is: a couple of founders who have some great idea they know everyone is going to love, and that's what they're going to build, no matter what.
Almost everyone's initial plan is broken. If companies stuck to their initial plans, Microsoft would be selling programming languages, and Apple would be selling printed circuit boards. In both cases their customers told them what their business should be-- and they were smart enough to listen.
As Richard Feynman said, the imagination of nature is greater than the imagination of man. You'll find more interesting things by looking at the world than you could ever produce just by thinking. This principle is very powerful. It's why the best abstract painting still falls short of Leonardo, for example. And it applies to startups too. No idea for a product could ever be so clever as the ones you can discover by smashing a beam of prototypes into a beam of users.
- 害怕正确的事情。
我经常说的另一句话是“别担心”。实际上,更常说的是“别担心这个;担心那个才对。”初创公司应该保持警惕,但有时他们担心错了对象。
大多数可见的灾难并没有看起来那么可怕。灾难在初创公司中是常态:创始人离职、发现已有专利覆盖了你的业务、服务器不断崩溃、遇到无法解决的技术问题、不得不改名、交易告吹——这些都是家常便饭。它们不会杀死你,除非你放任它们。
大多数竞争对手也不会。很多初创公司担心“如果谷歌也做类似的东西怎么办?”实际上,大公司不是你该担心的——甚至谷歌也不是。谷歌的人很聪明,但不会比你更聪明;他们没那么有动力,因为谷歌不会因为这一个产品失败而倒闭;而且即使谷歌也有大量官僚主义拖慢他们。
作为初创公司,你应该害怕的不是既有的玩家,而是其他你尚不知其存在的初创公司。它们比谷歌危险得多,因为和你一样,它们是困兽。
只盯着现有竞争对手会让你产生虚假的安全感。你应该与其他人可能做的事竞争,而不仅仅是你看到的。一个推论是:不要因为还没有可见的竞争对手就放松。无论你的想法是什么,外面都有人在研究同样的东西。
创业变得更容易的坏处是:更多人正在创业。但我不同意Caterina Fake的说法——她说这让现在成了创业坏时机。更多人在创业,但远没有达到潜在的数量。大多数大学毕业生仍然认为他们必须找份工作。普通人不会因为网页服务最近便宜了很多就忽视从小被灌输的观念。
而且无论如何,竞争对手并不是最大的威胁。更多的初创公司是自己搞砸的,而不是被竞争对手压垮的。搞砸的方式有很多,但主要有三种:内部纠纷、惯性、忽视用户。每一种都足以致死。但如果让我选最坏的一种,那就是忽视用户。如果你想要一个注定失败的初创公司配方,那就是:几个创始人有一个他们觉得每个人都会爱的伟大想法,并且不管怎样他们都要把它造出来。
几乎每个人的初始计划都是有缺陷的。如果公司坚持最初的计划,微软现在还在卖编程语言,苹果还在卖印刷电路板。在这两个案例中,是顾客告诉了他们业务应该是什么——他们足够聪明,听取了意见。
正如Richard Feynman所说,自然的想象力大于人类的想象力。通过观察世界你会发现比单纯思考更有趣的东西。这个原则非常强大。例如,这就是为什么最优秀的抽象画依然不及达芬奇。它也适用于初创公司。没有任何产品想法能比通过将一束原型撞向一束用户而发现的那些更巧妙。
- Commitment Is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.
I now have enough experience with startups to be able to say what the most important quality is in a startup founder, and it's not what you might think. The most important quality in a startup founder is determination. Not intelligence-- determination.
This is a little depressing. I'd like to believe Viaweb succeeded because we were smart, not merely determined. A lot of people in the startup world want to believe that. Not just founders, but investors too. They like the idea of inhabiting a world ruled by intelligence. And you can tell they really believe this, because it affects their investment decisions.
Time after time VCs invest in startups founded by eminent professors. This may work in biotech, where a lot of startups simply commercialize existing research, but in software you want to invest in students, not professors. Microsoft, Yahoo, and Google were all founded by people who dropped out of school to do it. What students lack in experience they more than make up in dedication.
Of course, if you want to get rich, it's not enough merely to be determined. You have to be smart too, right? I'd like to think so, but I've had an experience that convinced me otherwise: I spent several years living in New York.
You can lose quite a lot in the brains department and it won't kill you. But lose even a little bit in the commitment department, and that will kill you very rapidly.
Running a startup is like walking on your hands: it's possible, but it requires extraordinary effort. If an ordinary employee were asked to do the things a startup founder has to, he'd be very indignant. Imagine if you were hired at some big company, and in addition to writing software ten times faster than you'd ever had to before, they expected you to answer support calls, administer the servers, design the web site, cold-call customers, find the company office space, and go out and get everyone lunch.
And to do all this not in the calm, womb-like atmosphere of a big company, but against a backdrop of constant disasters. That's the part that really demands determination. In a startup, there's always some disaster happening. So if you're the least bit inclined to find an excuse to quit, there's always one right there.
But if you lack commitment, chances are it will have been hurting you long before you actually quit. Everyone who deals with startups knows how important commitment is, so if they sense you're ambivalent, they won't give you much attention. If you lack commitment, you'll just find that for some mysterious reason good things happen to your competitors but not to you. If you lack commitment, it will seem to you that you're unlucky.
Whereas if you're determined to stick around, people will pay attention to you, because odds are they'll have to deal with you later. You're a local, not just a tourist, so everyone has to come to terms with you.
At Y Combinator we sometimes mistakenly fund teams who have the attitude that they're going to give this startup thing a shot for three months, and if something great happens, they'll stick with it-- "something great" meaning either that someone wants to buy them or invest millions of dollars in them. But if this is your attitude, "something great" is very unlikely to happen to you, because both acquirers and investors judge you by your level of commitment.
If an acquirer thinks you're going to stick around no matter what, they'll be more likely to buy you, because if they don't and you stick around, you'll probably grow, your price will go up, and they'll be left wishing they'd bought you earlier. Ditto for investors. What really motivates investors, even big VCs, is not the hope of good returns, but the fear of missing out.
[6] So if you make it clear you're going to succeed no matter what, and the only reason you need them is to make it happen a little faster, you're much more likely to get money.You can't fake this. The only way to convince everyone that you're ready to fight to the death is actually to be ready to.
You have to be the right kind of determined, though. I carefully chose the word determined rather than stubborn, because stubbornness is a disastrous quality in a startup. You have to be determined, but flexible, like a running back. A successful running back doesn't just put his head down and try to run through people. He improvises: if someone appears in front of him, he runs around them; if someone tries to grab him, he spins out of their grip; he'll even run in the wrong direction briefly if that will help. The one thing he'll never do is stand still.
[7]
- 承诺是自我实现的预言。
我现在有足够多的创业经验,可以说出创业创始人最重要的品质是什么,而且这和你想象的可能不一样。创业创始人最重要的品质是决心,不是智力——是决心。
这有点令人沮丧。我更愿意相信Viaweb的成功是因为我们聪明,而不仅仅是决心。创业圈里的很多人也愿意相信这一点,不仅是创始人,投资者也是。他们喜欢生活在一个由智力统治的世界里。你可以看出他们真的相信,因为这影响了他们的投资决策。
风险投资一次又一次地投资于由知名教授创办的初创公司。这在生物技术领域可能奏效,因为很多初创公司只是将现有研究商业化,但在软件领域,你应该投资学生,而不是教授。微软、雅虎和谷歌都是由辍学创办的。学生缺乏经验,但他们的投入程度足以弥补。
当然,如果你想致富,仅有决心是不够的。你还得聪明,对吧?我愿意这么认为,但有一次经历让我相信并非如此:我在纽约住了好几年。
你可以在智力上损失很多,但不会致命。但在承诺上哪怕损失一点点,就会迅速要你的命。
经营一家初创公司就像用手走路:是可能的,但需要非凡的努力。如果让一个普通员工去做创业创始人必须做的事情,他会非常愤慨。想象一下,你被一家大公司聘用,除了要以比以前快十倍的速度编写软件,他们还要你接听支持电话、管理服务器、设计网站、打电话推销、找办公室,还要出去给大家买午饭。
而且所有这些不是在平静如子宫般的大公司氛围中,而是在不断发生灾难的背景下。那部分才真正需要决心。在初创公司里,总会有灾难发生。所以只要你有一点点想找借口放弃的倾向,借口就在那里。
但如果你缺乏承诺,很可能在真正放弃之前很久它就已经在伤害你了。所有与初创公司打交道的人都知道承诺有多重要,所以如果他们感觉到你犹豫不决,就不会给你太多关注。如果你缺乏承诺,你会莫名其妙地发现好事都发生在竞争对手身上,却不发生在你身上。如果你缺乏承诺,你会觉得自己运气不好。
而如果你决心坚持下去,人们就会关注你,因为他们很可能以后要和你打交道。你是本地人,不只是游客,所以每个人都得和你达成共识。
在Y Combinator,我们有时会错误地资助一些团队,他们的态度是:先试三个月,如果有什么好事发生就继续——所谓“好事”要么是有人想收购他们,要么是向他们投资数百万美元。但如果这是你的态度,“好事”就极不可能发生,因为收购方和投资者都会根据你的承诺水平来判断。
如果收购方认为你会无论如何坚持下去,他们更可能买你,因为如果现在不买而你又坚持下去,你很可能成长,价格会上涨,他们会后悔没有早点买。投资者也是。真正激励投资者(甚至大型风投)的不是获得良好回报的希望,而是害怕错过。
[6] 所以,如果你明确表示无论如何你都会成功,你需要他们只是为了让成功来得更快一点,你就更有可能拿到钱。这方面不能假装。让所有人相信你准备好战斗到死的唯一方法就是真正准备好。
不过,你必须是对的那种决心。我特意选了“决心”而不是“固执”,因为固执对初创公司来说是灾难性的品质。你必须坚定,但要灵活,就像一名跑卫。一个成功的跑卫不会只是埋头试图冲过人墙。他会即兴发挥:如果有人挡在前面,他绕过去;如果有人想抓他,他挣脱开;如果有助于推进,他甚至会短暂地向错误方向跑。他唯一不会做的就是停滞不前。
[7]
- There Is Always Room.
I was talking recently to a startup founder about whether it might be good to add a social component to their software. He said he didn't think so, because the whole social thing was tapped out. Really? So in a hundred years the only social networking sites will be the Facebook, MySpace, Flickr, and Del.icio.us? Not likely.
There is always room for new stuff. At every point in history, even the darkest bits of the dark ages, people were discovering things that made everyone say "why didn't anyone think of that before?" We know this continued to be true up till 2004, when the Facebook was founded-- though strictly speaking someone else did think of that.
The reason we don't see the opportunities all around us is that we adjust to however things are, and assume that's how things have to be. For example, it would seem crazy to most people to try to make a better search engine than Google. Surely that field, at least, is tapped out. Really? In a hundred years-- or even twenty-- are people still going to search for information using something like the current Google? Even Google probably doesn't think that.
In particular, I don't think there's any limit to the number of startups. Sometimes you hear people saying "All these guys starting startups now are going to be disappointed. How many little startups are Google and Yahoo going to buy, after all?" That sounds cleverly skeptical, but I can prove it's mistaken. No one proposes that there's some limit to the number of people who can be employed in an economy consisting of big, slow-moving companies with a couple thousand people each. Why should there be any limit to the number who could be employed by small, fast-moving companies with ten each? It seems to me the only limit would be the number of people who want to work that hard.
The limit on the number of startups is not the number that can get acquired by Google and Yahoo-- though it seems even that should be unlimited, if the startups were actually worth buying-- but the amount of wealth that can be created. And I don't think there's any limit on that, except cosmological ones.
So for all practical purposes, there is no limit to the number of startups. Startups make wealth, which means they make things people want, and if there's a limit on the number of things people want, we are nowhere near it. I still don't even have a flying car.
- 总有空间。
最近我和一位创始人谈论是否应该给他们的软件添加社交元素。他说他不这么认为,因为整个社交领域已经饱和了。真的吗?那么一百年后,唯一的社交网站就是Facebook、MySpace、Flickr和Del.icio.us?不太可能。
新事物总有空间。在历史的每个时刻,即使是最黑暗的中世纪,人们也总能发现一些让所有人说“为什么以前没人想到这个?”的东西。我们知道这一点直到2004年依然成立,当时Facebook创立了——尽管严格来说,其他人确实想到了。
我们看不到身边机会的原因是,我们习惯了现状,并认为事情本就应该如此。例如,在大多数人看来,试图做比谷歌更好的搜索引擎简直是疯了。至少那个领域肯定饱和了,对吧?真的吗?一百年后——甚至二十年后——人们还会用像今天谷歌这样的东西搜索信息吗?可能连谷歌自己都不这么认为。
具体来说,我认为初创公司的数量没有任何限制。有时你会听到人们说:“现在这些创业的家伙都会失望的。毕竟谷歌和雅虎能收购多少家小公司?”这听起来像是精明的怀疑论,但我可以证明它是错的。没有人认为由每家几千人的大而慢的公司构成的经济体中,就业人数有限。为什么由每家十人的小而快的公司构成的就业人数就有限制?在我看来,唯一的限制就是愿意那么努力工作的人数。
初创公司数量的限制不在于能被谷歌和雅虎收购的数量——尽管如果它们真的值得收购,那个数字似乎也是无限的——而在于能创造的财富总量。而且我认为这个总量没有限制,除了宇宙学意义上的。
所以实际上,初创公司的数量没有限制。初创公司创造财富,也就是创造人们想要的东西。如果人们想要的东西有数量限制,我们远未达到。我甚至还没有一辆飞行汽车。
- Don't Get Your Hopes Up.
This is another one I've been repeating since long before Y Combinator. It was practically the corporate motto at Viaweb.
Startup founders are naturally optimistic. They wouldn't do it otherwise. But you should treat your optimism the way you'd treat the core of a nuclear reactor: as a source of power that's also very dangerous. You have to build a shield around it, or it will fry you.
The shielding of a reactor is not uniform; the reactor would be useless if it were. It's pierced in a few places to let pipes in. An optimism shield has to be pierced too. I think the place to draw the line is between what you expect of yourself, and what you expect of other people. It's ok to be optimistic about what you can do, but assume the worst about machines and other people.
This is particularly necessary in a startup, because you tend to be pushing the limits of whatever you're doing. So things don't happen in the smooth, predictable way they do in the rest of the world. Things change suddenly, and usually for the worse.
Shielding your optimism is nowhere more important than with deals. If your startup is doing a deal, just assume it's not going to happen. The VCs who say they're going to invest in you aren't. The company that says they're going to buy you isn't. The big customer who wants to use your system in their whole company won't. Then if things work out you can be pleasantly surprised.
The reason I warn startups not to get their hopes up is not to save them from being disappointed when things fall through. It's for a more practical reason: to prevent them from leaning their company against something that's going to fall over, taking them with it.
For example, if someone says they want to invest in you, there's a natural tendency to stop looking for other investors. That's why people proposing deals seem so positive: they want you to stop looking. And you want to stop too, because doing deals is a pain. Raising money, in particular, is a huge time sink. So you have to consciously force yourself to keep looking.
Even if you ultimately do the first deal, it will be to your advantage to have kept looking, because you'll get better terms. Deals are dynamic; unless you're negotiating with someone unusually honest, there's not a single point where you shake hands and the deal's done. There are usually a lot of subsidiary questions to be cleared up after the handshake, and if the other side senses weakness-- if they sense you need this deal-- they will be very tempted to screw you in the details.
VCs and corp dev guys are professional negotiators. They're trained to take advantage of weakness.
[8] So while they're often nice guys, they just can't help it. And as pros they do this more than you. So don't even try to bluff them. The only way a startup can have any leverage in a deal is genuinely not to need it. And if you don't believe in a deal, you'll be less likely to depend on it.So I want to plant a hypnotic suggestion in your heads: when you hear someone say the words "we want to invest in you" or "we want to acquire you," I want the following phrase to appear automatically in your head: don't get your hopes up. Just continue running your company as if this deal didn't exist. Nothing is more likely to make it close.
The way to succeed in a startup is to focus on the goal of getting lots of users, and keep walking swiftly toward it while investors and acquirers scurry alongside trying to wave money in your face.
- 不要抱太大希望。
这是我在Y Combinator之前很久就一直在重复的另一条建议。它几乎是Viaweb的公司座右铭。
创业创始人天生乐观,否则他们不会去做。但你应该像对待核反应堆堆芯一样对待你的乐观:它是一种强大的能量来源,但也非常危险。你必须给它建一个防护罩,否则它会烤焦你。
反应堆的防护罩不是均匀的;如果是的话反应堆就没用了。它有几个开口让管道进来。乐观防护罩也必须开几个口。我认为分界线在于你对自己的期望和对他人及机器的期望。对自己的能力可以乐观,但对机器和其他人要做最坏的打算。
这在初创公司中尤其必要,因为你往往在挑战极限。所以事情不会像世界上其他地方那样平滑、可预测地发生。事情会突然变化,而且通常是变糟。
保护你的乐观没有任何地方比在交易中更重要。如果你的初创公司正在进行一笔交易,就假设它不会发生。说会投资你的风投不会投。说会收购你的公司不会收购。想在整个公司使用你们系统的大客户不会用。然后如果事情成了,你会惊喜。
我警告初创公司不要抱太大希望,不是为了在事情失败时让他们免于失望,而是出于更实际的原因:防止他们把公司靠在即将倒塌的东西上,然后被它带倒。
例如,如果有人说想投资你,你自然会停止寻找其他投资者。这正是提议交易的人如此积极的原因:他们想让你停止寻找。而你也想停止,因为做交易很痛苦。特别是融资,非常耗时。所以你必须刻意强迫自己继续寻找。
即使你最终真的做了第一笔交易,继续寻找对你也更有利,因为你能获得更好的条款。交易是动态的;除非你在和异常诚实的人谈判,否则没有一个单一的握手完成时刻。通常在握手之后还有很多附属问题要解决,如果对方感觉到你的软弱——感觉到你需要这笔交易——他们就会在细节上狠狠坑你。
风投和公司发展部门的人是专业谈判者,他们受过利用弱点的训练。
[8] 所以尽管他们通常人不错,但他们控制不住自己。作为专业人士,他们比你会更频繁地这样做。所以不要试图虚张声势。初创公司在交易中拥有筹码的唯一办法是真正不需要它。如果你不相信这笔交易,你就更不可能依赖它。
所以我想在你们脑中植入一个催眠暗示:当你们听到有人说“我们想投资你”或“我们想收购你”时,我想到自动在脑海中出现这句话:不要抱太大希望。继续经营你的公司,就像这笔交易不存在一样。没有什么比这更能让它成交。
在初创公司成功的方法是专注于获得大量用户的目标,并快速朝它前进,而投资者和收购方在旁边跑来跑去,试图在你面前挥舞钞票。
Speed, not Money
The way I've described it, starting a startup sounds pretty stressful. It is. When I talk to the founders of the companies we've funded, they all say the same thing: I knew it would be hard, but I didn't realize it would be this hard.
So why do it? It would be worth enduring a lot of pain and stress to do something grand or heroic, but just to make money? Is making money really that important?
No, not really. It seems ridiculous to me when people take business too seriously. I regard making money as a boring errand to be got out of the way as soon as possible. There is nothing grand or heroic about starting a startup per se.
So why do I spend so much time thinking about startups? I'll tell you why. Economically, a startup is best seen not as a way to get rich, but as a way to work faster. You have to make a living, and a startup is a way to get that done quickly, instead of letting it drag on through your whole life.
[9]We take it for granted most of the time, but human life is fairly miraculous. It is also palpably short. You're given this marvellous thing, and then poof, it's taken away. You can see why people invent gods to explain it. But even to people who don't believe in gods, life commands respect. There are times in most of our lives when the days go by in a blur, and almost everyone has a sense, when this happens, of wasting something precious. As Ben Franklin said, if you love life, don't waste time, because time is what life is made of.
So no, there's nothing particularly grand about making money. That's not what makes startups worth the trouble. What's important about startups is the speed. By compressing the dull but necessary task of making a living into the smallest possible time, you show respect for life, and there is something grand about that.
速度而非金钱
按照我的描述,创业听起来压力很大。确实如此。当我与我们资助过的公司创始人交谈时,他们都说同样的话:我知道会很难,但没想到这么难。
那为什么还要做?忍受巨大的痛苦和压力去做一件宏大或英雄般的事情是值得的,但仅仅为了赚钱?赚钱真的那么重要吗?
不,并非如此。我觉得人们把商业看得太重很可笑。我把赚钱看作一件乏味的差事,想尽快把它搞定。创业本身并没有什么宏大或英雄之处。
那我为什么花这么多时间思考创业?我来告诉你原因。从经济角度看,创业最好被看作不是致富的方法,而是工作更快的方法。你需要谋生,创业就是快速完成这件事的方式,而不是让它拖累你的一生。
[9]大多数时候我们习以为常,但人类生命相当神奇,也明显的短暂。你获得了这个奇妙的东西,然后噗的一声,它被拿走了。你能理解为什么人们发明神来解释它。但即便对不信神的人来说,生命也值得尊重。在我们大多数人的生活中,总有一些日子在模糊中流逝,几乎每个人在此时都有一种浪费珍贵东西的感觉。正如本杰明·富兰克林所说,如果你热爱生命,就不要浪费时间,因为时间就是生命。
所以不,赚钱本身并没有什么了不起。那不是创业值得去折腾的原因。创业重要的是速度。通过把枯燥但必要的谋生任务压缩到尽可能短的时间,你表达了对生命的尊重,而那是很宏大的。
Notes
[ 1] Startups can die from releasing something full of bugs, and not fixing them fast enough, but I don't know of any that died from releasing something stable but minimal very early, then promptly improving it.
[ 2] I know this is why I haven't released Arc. The moment I do, I'll have people nagging me for features.
[ 3] A web site is different from a book or movie or desktop application in this respect. Users judge a site not as a single snapshot, but as an animation with multiple frames. Of the two, I'd say the rate of improvement is more important to users than where you currently are.
[ 4] It should not always tell this to users, however. For example, MySpace is basically a replacement mall for mallrats. But it was wiser for them, initially, to pretend that the site was about bands.
[ 5] Similarly, don't make users register to try your site. Maybe what you have is so valuable that visitors should gladly register to get at it. But they've been trained to expect the opposite. Most of the things they've tried on the web have sucked-- and probably especially those that made them register.
[ 6] VCs have rational reasons for behaving this way. They don't make their money (if they make money) off their median investments. In a typical fund, half the companies fail, most of the rest generate mediocre returns, and one or two "make the fund" by succeeding spectacularly. So if they miss just a few of the most promising opportunities, it could hose the whole fund.
[ 7] The attitude of a running back doesn't translate to soccer. Though it looks great when a forward dribbles past multiple defenders, a player who persists in trying such things will do worse in the long term than one who passes.
[ 8] The reason Y Combinator never negotiates valuations is that we're not professional negotiators, and don't want to turn into them.
[ 9] There are two ways to do work you love: (a) to make money, then work on what you love, or (b) to get a job where you get paid to work on stuff you love. In practice the first phases of both consist mostly of unedifying schleps, and in (b) the second phase is less secure.
注释
[1] 初创公司可能因为发布充满bug且修复不够快的产品而死亡,但我没听说过有哪家因为早期发布稳定但最小化、然后迅速改进而死亡。
[2] 我知道这就是我没发布Arc的原因。一旦发布,就会有人缠着我要功能。
[3] 在这方面,网站和书籍、电影、桌面应用不同。用户不是将网站看作单张快照,而是看作多帧动画。在这两者中,我认为改进的速度比当前状态对用户更重要。
[4] 然而,不应该总是对用户这么说。例如,MySpace本质上是替代购物中心。但最初他们明智地假装网站是关于乐队的。
[5] 同样,不要强迫用户注册才能试用你的网站。也许你的东西非常有价值,访客应该乐意注册才能使用。但他们已经被训练成预期相反。他们尝试过的网络大部分都很糟糕——尤其是那些要求注册的。
[6] 风投这么做有合理的原因。他们赚钱(如果他们赚钱的话)不是靠中等投资。在一个典型基金中,一半公司失败,大部分剩余产生平庸回报,有一两个通过惊人成功“赚回整个基金”。所以如果他们错过少数最有希望的机会,就可能毁掉整个基金。
[7] 跑卫的态度不适用于足球。虽然前锋带球过掉多名防守球员看起来很帅,但坚持这么做的球员长期来看不如传球的球员。
[8] Y Combinator从不谈判估值的原因是我们不是专业谈判者,也不想变成那样。
[9] 做你喜欢的工作有两种方式:(a) 先赚钱,然后做你喜欢的事;或者 (b) 找一份你得到报酬做你喜欢的事情的工作。实际上,两种方式的第一阶段都主要由不体面的苦差事构成,而(b)的第二阶段更不稳定。