保罗·格雷厄姆：硬件复兴正当时，别让投资者偏见拦路
本文基于 Y Combinator 的观察，指出硬件初创公司正在增多且表现优异：在最近一批 84 家公司中，7 家硬件公司整体优于其他。作者分析了推动趋势的多个因素，包括众筹平台成熟、平板普及、无线连接标准化、原型制造门槛降低（Arduino、3D 打印、激光切割等）以及线上零售减少渠道阻力。文章认为，硬件创业长期被投资者低估，但创始人的前瞻性更强；软件一度比硬件更适合快速增长，这一优势可能只是暂时的。作者鼓励硬件创业者不要因投资人的偏见却步，尤其是申请 YC 时无需顾虑。文末展望，既有乔布斯那样的巨头空间，也必然有属于新人的第一个名字。适合关注创业趋势、硬件创意的技术人及创业者参考。
October 2012
One advantage of Y Combinator's early, broad focus is that we see trends before most other people. And one of the most conspicuous trends in the last batch was the large number of hardware startups. Out of 84 companies, 7 were making hardware. On the whole they've done better than the companies that weren't.
They've faced resistance from investors of course. Investors have a deep-seated bias against hardware. But investors' opinions are a trailing indicator. The best founders are better at seeing the future than the best investors, because the best founders are making it.
2012年10月
Y Combinator 早期宽泛聚焦的一个优势是，我们能比大多数人更早看到趋势。上一批创业公司中最显著的趋势之一，便是大量硬件初创企业的涌现。在 84 家公司中，有 7 家在做硬件。总体而言，它们的表现超过了其他公司。
当然，它们也面临着投资者的阻力。投资者对硬件有根深蒂固的偏见。但投资者的观点是滞后指标。最优秀的创始人比最优秀的投资者更擅长预见未来，因为最优秀的创始人正在创造未来。
There is no one single force driving this trend. Hardware does well on crowdfunding sites. The spread of tablets makes it possible to build new things controlled by and even incorporating them. Electric motors have improved. Wireless connectivity of various types can now be taken for granted. It's getting more straightforward to get things manufactured. Arduinos, 3D printing, laser cutters, and more accessible CNC milling are making hardware easier to prototype. Retailers are less of a bottleneck as customers increasingly buy online.
这股趋势并非由单一力量驱动。硬件在众筹网站上表现良好。平板的普及使得构建由它们控制甚至集成它们的新产品成为可能。电动机已经改进。各种类型的无线连接现在已成理所当然。产品制造正变得越来越直接。Arduino、3D 打印、激光切割机以及更易获得的 CNC 铣床，让硬件原型制作更加简单。随着客户越来越多地在线购买，零售商不再那么成为瓶颈。
One question I can answer is why hardware is suddenly cool. It always was cool. Physical things are great. They just haven't been as great a way to start a rapidly growing business as software. But that rule may not be permanent. It's not even that old; it only dates from about 1990. Maybe the advantage of software will turn out to have been temporary. Hackers love to build hardware, and customers love to buy it. So if the ease of shipping hardware even approached the ease of shipping software, we'd see a lot more hardware startups.
It wouldn't be the first time something was a bad idea till it wasn't. And it wouldn't be the first time investors learned that lesson from founders.
有一个问题我可以回答：为什么硬件突然变得很酷？它一直都很酷。实物产品很棒。它们只是不像软件那样适合创办一家快速增长的公司。但这条规则可能并非永久。它甚至没那么古老，大约从 1990 年才开始。也许软件的优势只是暂时的。黑客热爱制造硬件，而客户热爱购买硬件。因此，如果发布硬件的难度接近发布软件，我们会看到更多硬件创业公司。
这不会是第一次某件事在变成好主意之前被认为是坏主意。也不会是第一次投资者从创始人那里学到这个教训。
So if you want to work on hardware, don't be deterred from doing it because you worry investors will discriminate against you. And in particular, don't be deterred from applying to Y Combinator with a hardware idea, because we're especially interested in hardware startups.
We know there's room for the next Steve Jobs. But there's almost certainly also room for the first <Your Name Here>.
Thanks to Sam Altman, Trevor Blackwell, David Cann, Sanjay Dastoor, Paul Gerhardt, Cameron Robertson, Harj Taggar, and Garry Tan for reading drafts of this.
所以，如果你想做硬件，不要因为担心投资者歧视而却步。尤其是，不要因为硬件想法而不敢申请 Y Combinator，因为我们对硬件创业公司特别感兴趣。
我们知道有空间容纳下一个史蒂夫·乔布斯。但几乎肯定也有空间容纳第一个 <你的名字>。
感谢 Sam Altman、Trevor Blackwell、David Cann、Sanjay Dastoor、Paul Gerhardt、Cameron Robertson、Harj Taggar 和 Garry Tan 对本文草稿的审阅。